445 E 36th St · Erie, PA 16504

$229,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1954 6,599 sqft lot Est $208k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bigger than it looks. Addition added on the back of the house with family room, kitchen and laundry, leads out to a covered patio. Yard is enclosed with chain link fence. Klines basement system installed. One year HSA home warranty included!

Key facts

• Corian countertops
• Family room
• Dining room

Tags

• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• CORIAN COUNTERTOPS
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Fenced yard; Landscaped, level lot; Paved road access; Sidewalks in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 11 total rooms; Full basement with exterior entry; Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.4% in Erie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson El Sch (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,362 of 1,518 statewide, top 92%, 401 students, 100% FRL); Woodrow Wilson Ms (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #489 of 512 statewide, top 96%, 756 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $230k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,019 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,558
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3025 Pine Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-6%)	4mo	$105,000	$63	64
3025 Old French Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (+5%)	6mo	$157,500	$85	62
846 E 33rd St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,875 (+6%)	0mo	$224,900	$120	61
4003 Pine Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,740 (-2%)	4mo	$170,000	$98	58
4411 Wayne St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,820 (+3%)	2mo	$240,000	$132	57
141 W 37th St	0.73mi	4/3.0	1,797 (+1%)	4mo	$275,000	$153	54
4003 Old French Rd	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,584 (-11%)	4mo	$185,000	$117	53
3339 Holland St	0.38mi	4/1.5	1,515 (-15%)	6mo	$185,000	$122	53
3711 State St	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (-10%)	0mo	$282,500	$177	48
846 E 41st St	0.60mi	4/1.5	1,980 (+12%)	6mo	$220,000	$111	47
3838 Trask Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,888 (+6%)	2mo	$185,000	$98	46
2810 Perry St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (+10%)	2mo	$200,000	$102	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,677
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,058
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,109/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $167	+0% $102	+5% $37	+10% $-28
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $15	+0% $102	+5% $190	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $161	base $102	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	45d	1	0.69mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	45d	1	0.72mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	45d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $229,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-01
   listed $229,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,109 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,109 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$4,109
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$2,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $1,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+91.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $229,900 GEBOR
• 2017-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-28 Sold (MLS) $105,000 GEBOR
• 2017-03-02 Listed $119,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,109 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.