5026 Fitzwater Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1980 6,050 sqft lot $145/sqft · 5% below area Est $242k · 5% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience this beautiful property in Fairfax Village near Treaschwig Rd & Cypresswood. Just minutes away from the scenic Spring Creek Greenway and Mercer Botanic Gardens. This home boasts recent interior and exterior paint updates, creating a fresh and modern feel. The open living space features high ceilings, ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy the added benefit of vinyl flooring, perfect for those seeking a hypoallergenic living environment.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• High ceilings
• 6,050 sq ft lot

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• HIGH CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: HOA: Fairfax Village; HOA fee $450 annually; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Concrete road access
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Free-standing range; Built-in microwave; Garbage disposal; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom — First floor, about 16x12; Bedroom — First floor, about 12x12; Bedroom — First floor, about 12x11
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom — First floor, about 8x5
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combined; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen and dining combined; Open living/dining area; Programmable thermostat; Gas fireplace (one)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (other level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (6.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $215k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mildred Jenkins El (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 623 students, 90% FRL); Dueitt Middle (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 773 students, 84% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 9857% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,893 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,854
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -2.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23114 Goodfellow Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,541 (-2%)	7mo	$210,000	$136	88
23142 Calico Corners Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+1%)	19mo	$179,000	$112	75
5030 Monteith Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+5%)	22mo	$180,000	$109	71
23202 Goodfellow Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,798 (+14%)	14mo	$250,000	$139	56
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-7%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	54
4822 S Fairfax Village Cir	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,809 (+14%)	2mo	$220,000	$122	47
4555 Algernon Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-14%)	16mo	$205,000	$151	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-48,689
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-74,001
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$557 /mo · $6,681/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $214,893

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $229,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $1,900
16. 2026-05-11
    price $239,000 464-char remark
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $2,000
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $247,000 Active 464-char remark
19. 2026-02-13
    historical
20. 2026-01-21
    listed $235,000 Active
21. 2024-09-17
    historical
22. 2024-09-02
    status Active
23. 2024-08-31
    historical
24. 2024-06-17
    price $227,900
25. 2024-04-16
    price $234,900
26. 2024-03-21
    price $239,000
27. 2024-03-04
    listed $246,000 Active
28. 2022-05-10
    soldstatus
29. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2022-04-27
    status Pending
31. 2022-03-23
    status Pending, Continue to Show
32. 2022-03-04
    price $1,980
33. 2022-03-03
    status Active
34. 2022-02-28
    status Option Pending
35. 2022-02-04
    listed $219,000 Active
36. 2016-10-28
    soldstatus
37. 2005-10-05
    historical
38. 2005-08-29
    listed $91,900
39. 2004-07-12
    historical
40. 2004-06-16
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,681 · $557/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,681 · $557/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$6,681
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.4% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $247,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed $227,900 HARMLS
• 2024-04-16 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $246,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-04 Price Changed $1,980 RENT.
• 2022-03-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-02-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-04 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2016-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-08-29 Listed $91,900 HARMLS
• 2004-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-06-16 Listed $89,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,681 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.