571 Lupine Ln #15 · Burlington, WA 98233

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1997 1,568 sqft lot $136/sqft · 15% below area Est $236k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1¾-bath mobile home located in a desirable Burlington Hill Estates 55+ community. This charming home offers a comfortable and functional layout with spacious living areas, plenty of natural light, and pride of ownership throughout. The property also features a large one-car garage with a work bench, offering ample storage and parking, plus a nice backyard perfect for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining. Enjoy peaceful community living with a low-maintenance lifestyle in a quiet, well-kept park conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Perfect for those seeking comfort, convenience, and community. Natural Gas is available but not c

Key facts

• Work bench
• Nice backyard
• Large one-car garage

Tags

• BURLINGTON HILL ESTATES
• LARGE ONE-CAR GARAGE
• WORK BENCH
• NICE BACKYARD
• QUIET PARK
• DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer brokerage compensation: 2.5%
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Burlington Hill Estates manufactured home park; Park approved for sale; Senior community (senior exemption); 32 homes in park; Land lease: $1,012

Exterior

• Parking: Individual garage; Has garage; RV parking in park
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Electric energy; Public water (Skagit PUD); Sewer: City of Burlington; Power: PSE; Electric water heater located in garage
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Marlette model 27C2-C; Good condition; Has view; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood products siding; Curbs; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Water heater; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.2% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#65 in WA, #1,168 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D.
• Burlington-Edison School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #229 of 291 in WA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.24%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,957
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -15.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
571 Lupine Ln #15	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$136	95
579 Lupine Ln #16	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+2%)	1mo	$249,000	$165	95
619 Lupine Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+8%)	11mo	$200,000	$126	77
561 Andrew Dr #30	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-11%)	8mo	$160,000	$121	74
1030 Courtney Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,457 (-1%)	23mo	$260,000	$178	70
572 Andrew Dr #3	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+14%)	6mo	$255,000	$152	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,643
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $75,059
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98233

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,834

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $481	+0% $412	+5% $342	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $319	+0% $412	+5% $505	+10% $598
Rate	-1.0pp $512	-0.5pp $462	base $412	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
540 N Pine St #2 Burlington, WA	2.0	1.5	944	$1,600	$1.69	44d	1	0.24mi
180 Moss Ln Burlington, WA	4.0	2.0	1400	$3,300	$2.36	44d	1	0.57mi
207 Lodean Dr Burlington, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	21d	1	0.87mi
204 Lodean Dr Burlington, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,938	$2.15	21d	2	0.87mi
217 Lodean Dr Burlington, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,949	$2.17	44d	1	0.89mi
104 Heritage Pl Burlington, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$2,525	$2.75	21d	13	0.92mi
421 W Fairhaven Ave Burlington, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,195	$2.00	44d	1	0.95mi
421 E Fairhaven Ave Unit W Fairhaven Ave, 421 Burlington, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,195	$2.00	44d	1	0.95mi
425 E Fairhaven Ave Unit W Fairhaven Ave, 425 Burlington, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,195	$2.00	44d	1	0.95mi
1066 Vail Ln Burlington, WA	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,800	$1.64	21d	1	1.01mi
592 Neff Cir Unit 592 Burlington, WA	3.0	2.5	1490	$2,600	$1.74	44d	1	1.12mi
615 Peterson Rd Burlington, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	762	$2,500	$3.28	21d	23	1.15mi
677 Peterson Pl Burlington, WA	2.0	1.0	943	$2,100	$2.23	21d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-05-08
   listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$460
• After-tax cash flow: $4,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington-Edison School District
• NCES district ID: 5300780
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,128
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #9782
• State rank: #229 of 291 in WA

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #1168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, WA
• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• City population: 17,850
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $87,614
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 716.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 392.5216
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.57%
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $200,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $235 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.