10204 Little Gem Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$275,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2018 7,840 sqft lot Est $268k · at est. $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home in the highly demanded subdivision of Magnolia Springs! 4beds, 2 baths, open floor plan! Home includes an indoor and outdoor security system, has smart home features and is ready to be yours!

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• New flooring
• Inside laundry room

Tags

• BRICK VENEER RESIDENCE
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• NEW FLOORING
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• ABUNDANT STORAGE SPACE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with an annual fee of $260; Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with direct access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Built by DR Horton (Cali model)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard with wood fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Double vanity; Dead bolt locks
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($977/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $187k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,192 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10166 Little Gem Dr	0.07mi	4/1.0	1,812 (0%)	12mo	$249,900	$138	87
10107 Woodbury Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-1%)	10mo	$274,500	$153	81
18224 Big Leaf Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+3%)	8mo	$263,500	$141	80
18450 Elkwood Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-0%)	2mo	$268,500	$149	74
18433 Elkwood Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-1%)	1mo	$280,000	$156	74
10068 Willow Leaf Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-1%)	13mo	$265,000	$148	69
10236 Willow Leaf Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-1%)	12mo	$265,000	$148	66
18185 Beechwood Cv	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-9%)	9mo	$255,000	$155	62
10358 Sweet Bay Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,990 (+10%)	2mo	$250,000	$126	58
10456 Willow Leaf Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,054 (+13%)	4mo	$300,000	$146	47
10217 Willow Leaf Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-9%)	12mo	$255,000	$155	46
18526 Elkwood Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,054 (+13%)	8mo	$279,000	$136	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-30,016
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $22,276
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,521/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,159

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10536 Sweet Bay Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1961	$2,349	$1.20	13d	1	0.20mi
10388 Sweet Bay Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,800	$1.23	13d	1	0.31mi
18186 Southern Magnolia Cv Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	2054	$2,300	$1.12	13d	1	0.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,521 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,172 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$651/yr (+$54/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,521
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$903
• After-tax cash flow: $1,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+47.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $275,000 MLSU
• 2026-06-17 Listed $250,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-09 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-09-24 Listed $275,000 MLSU
• 2021-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-09 Listed $220,000 MLSU
• 2018-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $186,825 Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-01-11 Listed $186,825 MLSU

Property tax history

+23.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,521 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.