621 13th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$149,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,767 sqft · Townhouse public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1949 3,168 sqft lot $85/sqft · 39% above area Est $108k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained brick duplex located in downtown Niagara Falls within the highly desirable Airbnb zone. The first-floor unit features a one-bedroom layout with a comfortable living area and an eat-in kitchen. The second-floor unit offers two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and separate living and dining spaces, it is currently tenant-occupied. Both units include separate utilities and central air conditioning for added convenience. Ideally positioned across from the Niagara Arts and Cultural Center and within walking distance to the Niagara Falls Memorial Medical District, the property is also just minutes from Niagara Falls State Park. Rear parking and a fenced yard provide additional value, making this property an excellent option for investors or owner occupants alike.

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Rear parking
• Fenced yard

Tags

• BRICK DUPLEX
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• REAR PARKING
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-567/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bloneva Bond Primary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,075 of 2,108 statewide, top 99%, 403 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,323/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,286 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,104
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 38.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
423 17th St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (-0%)	19mo	$105,000	$60	57
532 18th St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-3%)	22mo	$90,000	$52	55
1138 La Salle Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (-6%)	13mo	$90,000	$54	52
1008 19th St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-14%)	3mo	$65,000	$43	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $85,678
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.48×
• Total profit: $272,099
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,383

Max offer price $141,559

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-5	+0% $-47	+5% $-90	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-99	+0% $-47	+5% $5	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-9	base $-47	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	5d	1	0.28mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	19d	1	0.55mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	5d	1	0.67mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	3d	1	0.92mi
1312 Ontario Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	45d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $149,900 796-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained brick duplex located in downtown Niagara Falls within the highly desirable Airbnb zone. The first-floor unit features a one-bedroom layout with a comfortable living area and an eat-in kitchen. The second-floor unit offers two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and separate living and dining spaces, it is currently tenant-occupied. Both units include separate utilities and central air conditioning for added convenience. Ideally positioned across from the Niagara Arts and Cultural Center and within walking distance to the Niagara Falls Memorial Medical District, the property is also just minutes from Niagara Falls State Park. Rear parking and a fenced yard provide additional value, making this property an excellent option for investors or owner occupants alike.

2. 2026-04-18
   price $154,900 796-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained brick duplex located in downtown Niagara Falls within the highly desirable Airbnb zone. The first-floor unit features a one-bedroom layout with a comfortable living area and an eat-in kitchen. The second-floor unit offers two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and separate living and dining spaces, it is currently tenant-occupied. Both units include separate utilities and central air conditioning for added convenience. Ideally positioned across from the Niagara Arts and Cultural Center and within walking distance to the Niagara Falls Memorial Medical District, the property is also just minutes from Niagara Falls State Park. Rear parking and a fenced yard provide additional value, making this property an excellent option for investors or owner occupants alike.

3. 2026-03-28
   price $159,900 796-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained brick duplex located in downtown Niagara Falls within the highly desirable Airbnb zone. The first-floor unit features a one-bedroom layout with a comfortable living area and an eat-in kitchen. The second-floor unit offers two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and separate living and dining spaces, it is currently tenant-occupied. Both units include separate utilities and central air conditioning for added convenience. Ideally positioned across from the Niagara Arts and Cultural Center and within walking distance to the Niagara Falls Memorial Medical District, the property is also just minutes from Niagara Falls State Park. Rear parking and a fenced yard provide additional value, making this property an excellent option for investors or owner occupants alike.

4. 2026-02-19
   listed $164,900 Active 796-char remark

   Show marketing remark (796 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained brick duplex located in downtown Niagara Falls within the highly desirable Airbnb zone. The first-floor unit features a one-bedroom layout with a comfortable living area and an eat-in kitchen. The second-floor unit offers two bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and separate living and dining spaces, it is currently tenant-occupied. Both units include separate utilities and central air conditioning for added convenience. Ideally positioned across from the Niagara Arts and Cultural Center and within walking distance to the Niagara Falls Memorial Medical District, the property is also just minutes from Niagara Falls State Park. Rear parking and a fenced yard provide additional value, making this property an excellent option for investors or owner occupants alike.

5. 2026-02-16
   historical
6. 2026-02-13
   listed $159,000 Active
7. 2024-10-31
   soldstatus $147,000 Closed
8. 2024-09-04
   status Pending
9. 2024-08-01
   listed $149,900 Active
10. 2021-08-12
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed Sale or Rented
11. 2021-03-14
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
12. 2021-03-02
    status Active
13. 2021-02-23
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
14. 2021-02-01
    status Active
15. 2021-01-28
    price $125,000
16. 2021-01-28
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
17. 2021-01-13
    price $129,900
18. 2020-12-24
    listed $144,900 Active
19. 1995-12-27
    soldstatus $59,900
20. 1995-12-21
    soldstatus $61,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,925 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,925 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$743
• After-tax cash flow: $177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+142.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $154,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $164,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $159,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-31 Sold (MLS) $147,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-08-01 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-08-12 Sold (MLS) $120,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-03-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-03-02 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2021-02-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-02-01 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2021-01-28 Price Changed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-01-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-01-13 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-12-24 Listed $144,900 WNYREIS
• 1995-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 1995-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $61,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,925 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.