4212 Buffalo Trl #433 · Evans, CO 80620

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2015 1,742 sqft lot Est $135k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This beautiful Mobile home built in 2015 offers 4 bed 2 bath in the beautiful Cave Creek community. This mobile home is spacious and affordable! Central Air Conditioning, access to community club house, pool and exercise room, storage shed, playground close by, and more! Financing can be obtained through -Shelby Wardlaw at Cross Country Mortgage. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Private bath
• Community amenities

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BATH
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Clayton Homes; No reported on-site improvements
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features
• Utilities: City water (meter installed); Public sewer; Natural gas available (Atmos); Electricity available; Trash service: Waste Management
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roofing
• Exterior features: Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all conforming)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Freezer; Disposal; Fire Alarm

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $987 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.8% in Evans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#104 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta (urban): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #71 of 86 in CO (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chappelow K-8 Magnet School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 687 students, 61% FRL); Greeley West High School (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #244 of 381 statewide, top 66%, 1,885 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.35%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3105 Foxtail Ln #308	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	4mo	$135,000	$86	88
3008 Foxtail Ln #331	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	14mo	$132,500	$85	82
4013 Wapiti Way	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$123,000	$78	74
4225 Buffalo Trl #396	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	10mo	$132,500	$91	72
4200 Buffalo Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	14mo	$123,112	$85	69
4130 Mesquite Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-7%)	8mo	$125,000	$86	65
3117 Foxtail Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-7%)	13mo	$122,200	$84	62
4134 Mesquite Ln #153	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (-7%)	13mo	$130,000	$89	61
4107 Cedar Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,782 (+14%)	0mo	$129,900	$73	60
4131 Cedar Ln #79	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+10%)	8mo	$119,000	$69	55
3301 Coyote Ln #26	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$115,000	$86	52
3400 Yucca Cir #218	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	7mo	$120,000	$89	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $34,254
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $84,672
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80620

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $758/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $987

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,047

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2711 Montego Bay Evans, CO	3.0	3.0	2224	$2,350	$1.06	13d	1	0.73mi
1725 Rowan Ln Evans, CO	3.0	1.5	1190	$2,099	$1.76	13d	1	0.98mi
2506 32nd St Evans, CO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1155	$2,025	$1.75	23d	1	1.09mi
3301 Abbey Rd Evans, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$2,112	$2.31	13d	10	1.30mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $135,000 Active
16. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus $138,000 Sold 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful Mobile home built in 2015 offers 4 bed 2 bath in the beautiful Cave Creek community. This mobile home is spacious and affordable! Central Air Conditioning, access to community club house, pool and exercise room, storage shed, playground close by, and more! Financing can be obtained through -Shelby Wardlaw at Cross Country Mortgage. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2022-12-05
    historical Active - Backup 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful Mobile home built in 2015 offers 4 bed 2 bath in the beautiful Cave Creek community. This mobile home is spacious and affordable! Central Air Conditioning, access to community club house, pool and exercise room, storage shed, playground close by, and more! Financing can be obtained through -Shelby Wardlaw at Cross Country Mortgage. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2022-12-01
    price $135,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful Mobile home built in 2015 offers 4 bed 2 bath in the beautiful Cave Creek community. This mobile home is spacious and affordable! Central Air Conditioning, access to community club house, pool and exercise room, storage shed, playground close by, and more! Financing can be obtained through -Shelby Wardlaw at Cross Country Mortgage. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2022-11-15
    price $138,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful Mobile home built in 2015 offers 4 bed 2 bath in the beautiful Cave Creek community. This mobile home is spacious and affordable! Central Air Conditioning, access to community club house, pool and exercise room, storage shed, playground close by, and more! Financing can be obtained through -Shelby Wardlaw at Cross Country Mortgage. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2022-10-27
    listed $139,000 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Welcome Home! This beautiful Mobile home built in 2015 offers 4 bed 2 bath in the beautiful Cave Creek community. This mobile home is spacious and affordable! Central Air Conditioning, access to community club house, pool and exercise room, storage shed, playground close by, and more! Financing can be obtained through -Shelby Wardlaw at Cross Country Mortgage. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2022-06-24
    historical
22. 2022-06-01
    historical Active - Backup
23. 2022-05-29
    status Pending
24. 2022-05-23
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $758 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $758 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$758
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
• − Management: −$2,205
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $10,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,456
• After-tax cash flow: $9,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0804410
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,417
• Composite: 19.99/100
• National rank: #8667
• State rank: #71 of 86 in CO

Livability — Evans

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #9005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evans, CO
• County: Weld County · 332,652 people
• City population: 20,798
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 20,798
• Household income: $73,590
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 45% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.36%
• Current HPI: 330.6379
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.78%
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $135,000 IRES
• 2022-12-30 Sold (MLS) $138,000 IRES
• 2022-12-05 Contingent — IRES
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $135,000 IRES
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $138,000 IRES
• 2022-10-27 Listed $139,000 IRES
• 2022-06-24 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2022-06-01 Contingent — IRES
• 2022-05-29 Pending — IRES
• 2022-05-23 Listed $139,000 IRES

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $758 · +331.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.