535 Buena Vista Dr · Lillian, AL 36549

$152,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1988 3,179 sqft lot $319/sqft · 86% above area Est $147k · at est. $74/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming coastal retreat featuring two bedrooms and one bath, designed for easy seaside living and entertaining. This inviting home offers a bright and airy layout with abundant natural light and a welcoming sunroom that provides space for morning coffee, reading, or additional entertaining. The cozy living areas flow comfortably, creating a relaxed atmosphere. A spacious back porch with grill overlooks a private backyard and firepit, for enjoying coastal breezes and outdoor gatherings. The property also includes a convenient storage building for tools, beach gear, or hobbies. A durable metal roof adds both character and long-term value, offering peace of mind for years to come. Whether you’re searching for a full-time residence or a vacation getaway, this delightful coastal home combines comfort, charm, and privacy in one appealing package. Located in the beachside, golf cart, pet-friendly community of Spanish Cove with 24 hour security on the Alabama/Florida line, this home is just 5 minutes from the Lillian boat launch and 15 minutes from Gulf beaches. Enjoy amenities like a private beach, 500-ft pier, two clubhouses, year-round pool, sports courts, fitness center, playground, trails, and golf cart access. The community offers social events, games, classes, clubs, and group travel. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful coastal getaway, this is a great place to call home and coastal living at its best. Schedule your showing today. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Firepit
• Metal roof
• Private backyard

Tags

• SUNROOM
• BACK PORCH
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• FIREPIT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-416/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $153k implies a 827% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,923
• List price: $152,900
• Delta: 4.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
528 Escambia Cir	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	480 (0%)	9mo	$100,000	$208	83
518 Elberta Loop	0.11mi	2/2.0	480 (0%)	12mo	$145,000	$302	81
479 Buena Vista Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	480 (0%)	13mo	$131,000	$273	79
112 Horn Dr	0.12mi	1/1.0 (-1)	480 (0%)	13mo	$95,000	$198	79
386 COVE BAYOU Cir	0.26mi	1/1.0 (-1)	480 (0%)	7mo	$60,000	$125	77
122 Horn Dr	0.17mi	1/1.0 (-1)	504 (+5%)	3mo	$134,000	$266	76
678 Escambia Loop	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	490 (+2%)	16mo	$60,400	$123	74
615 Escambia Loop	0.12mi	1/1.0 (-1)	432 (-10%)	4mo	$80,000	$185	69
284 Buena Vista Cir	0.27mi	1/1.0 (-1)	504 (+5%)	11mo	$134,000	$266	65
5 Buena Vista Dr	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	504 (+5%)	12mo	$105,000	$208	62
312 Buena Vista Dr	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	528 (+10%)	6mo	$122,000	$231	61
662 Escambia Loop	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	416 (-13%)	17mo	$155,000	$373	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-26,918
• Equity at exit: $22,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-26,013
• Equity at exit: $13,220

Cash invested: $42,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$191 /mo · $2,294/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $147,884

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $18	+0% $-35	+5% $-87	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-89	+0% $-35	+5% $20	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $4	base $-35	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,225
• Closing costs: $4,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $152,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $152,900 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,900 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $152,900 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,900 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $152,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $152,900 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $152,900 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,900 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $152,900 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,900 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,900 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,900 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,900 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $152,900 Active 102 DOM
19. 2026-02-17
    listed $152,900 Active 1541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1541 chars)

    Charming coastal retreat featuring two bedrooms and one bath, designed for easy seaside living and entertaining. This inviting home offers a bright and airy layout with abundant natural light and a welcoming sunroom that provides space for morning coffee, reading, or additional entertaining. The cozy living areas flow comfortably, creating a relaxed atmosphere. A spacious back porch with grill overlooks a private backyard and firepit, for enjoying coastal breezes and outdoor gatherings. The property also includes a convenient storage building for tools, beach gear, or hobbies. A durable metal roof adds both character and long-term value, offering peace of mind for years to come. Whether you’re searching for a full-time residence or a vacation getaway, this delightful coastal home combines comfort, charm, and privacy in one appealing package. Located in the beachside, golf cart, pet-friendly community of Spanish Cove with 24 hour security on the Alabama/Florida line, this home is just 5 minutes from the Lillian boat launch and 15 minutes from Gulf beaches. Enjoy amenities like a private beach, 500-ft pier, two clubhouses, year-round pool, sports courts, fitness center, playground, trails, and golf cart access. The community offers social events, games, classes, clubs, and group travel. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful coastal getaway, this is a great place to call home and coastal living at its best. Schedule your showing today. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2007-09-10
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,565
• − Property taxes: −$2,294
• − Insurance: −$764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,332
• − Management: −$1,332
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$4,448
• Taxable loss: −$2,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$714
• After-tax cash flow: $298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+826.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $152,900 BCAR
• 2007-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · +31.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.