96 Rebel Dr · Hot Springs, NC 28743

$125,600

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Rustic Mountain Homestead Renovation Opportunity! WORK IN PROGRESS. New Roof December 2025. Bring your vision & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; this property has the bones and setting to become something truly special. It is the definition of a work in progress and is being SOLD AS-IS. Joists/flooring/siding all needs to be replaced, many structural things in progress. We have put a lot of elbow-grease in it and much more will be required. The house requires construction, renovation, finishing and repairs. Private, wooded setting with a peaceful, off-the-beaten-path feel. Two story layout with upper living space/potential master bedroom that could easily be renovated with high ceiling

Key facts

• Existing chimney
• Dedicated balcony
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• PRIVATE WOODED SETTING
• TWO STORY LAYOUT
• DEDICATED BALCONY
• EXISTING CHIMNEY
• EXPANSIVE COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 0.6% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#288 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Madison County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #55 of 178 in NC (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 209 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($868 loan paydown + $615 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,716 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.08%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $14,265
• Equity at exit: $39,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $51,463
• Equity at exit: $50,122

Cash invested: $35,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28743

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$659
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $483/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $125,600

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,400
• Closing costs: $3,768
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,600 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,600 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,600 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,600 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,600 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,600 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,600 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,600 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,600 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,600 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,600 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,600 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,600 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,600 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,600 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $125,600 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$547/yr (+$46/mo · 113.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,036
• − Property taxes: −$483
• − Insurance: −$628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,201
• − Management: −$1,201
• − Depreciation: −$3,654
• Taxable income: $805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$193
• After-tax cash flow: $2,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702820
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,050
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2774
• State rank: #55 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #288
• US rank: #12286

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,374

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,646 people
• By 2030: 21,839 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 22,031 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 22,050 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 22,327 · +3.1%
• By 2100: 21,365 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.5% · R 61.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.6pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+9.1 2008: R+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Current HPI: 181.599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $125,600 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2018): $483 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.