40638 Goldeneye Pl · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2022 5,993 sqft lot $171/sqft · 6% below area Est $346k · 6% under $155/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to 40638 Goldeneye Place in Magnolia's Master Planner Community of Audubon. 2022 Devon Streets Home 1 story offers many upgrades throughout- luxury vinyl plank flooring, designer light fixtures, light & neutral paint color, large extended back patio, beautiful landscaping front & back yards. Wonderful natural light & storage. Environment For Living Home- installed solar panels offers highly efficient energy usage per month. Front yard maintenance provided by HOA. Enjoy natural beauty of this community with parks & walking trails. newly approved multi-use high end apartments, shopping & ding complex to be built at front of community. Future amenities in community - pool, clubhouse, more parks, walking trails! Exemplary Magnolia ISD schools. Excellent location to location shopping. dining & major highways. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Open layout
• Private study
• Lush landscaping

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• DESIGNER LIGHT FIXTURES
• OPEN LAYOUT
• EXTENDED CONCRETE PATIO
• LUSH LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with annual fee; Community pool; Playground; Trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Fully fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 14); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 14 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 13 x 10); Office on first floor (approx. 11 x 11); Dining room on first floor (approx. 11 x 9); Family room on first floor (approx. 16 x 16)
• Flooring: Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-655 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,175 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.64%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,569
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: -5.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15206 N Heron Heights Way	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,997 (+5%)	1mo	$335,000	$168	68
40418 Gerygone Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,064 (+9%)	8mo	$299,900	$145	63
40427 Gerygone Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,064 (+9%)	8mo	$324,900	$157	62
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-15%)	6mo	$304,900	$189	61
14707 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+5%)	6mo	$394,900	$199	58
14898 Whistling Duck Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+2%)	5mo	$369,900	$190	54
40710 Barley Straw Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (-8%)	2mo	$286,490	$164	49
40734 Barley Straw Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,041 (+8%)	1mo	$314,990	$154	47
14910 Slough View Ct	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,049 (+8%)	6mo	$452,900	$221	40
14890 Whistling Duck Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,169 (+14%)	7mo	$449,900	$207	32
14735 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,180 (+15%)	5mo	$399,900	$183	30
14822 Whistling Duck Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,180 (+15%)	8mo	$435,900	$200	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $129,355
• Equity at exit: $292,696

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $403,112
• Equity at exit: $631,209

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$480 /mo · $5,758/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,132

Max offer price $209,175

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-471	-5% $-563	+0% $-655	+5% $-747	+10% $-839
Rent	-10% $-837	-5% $-746	+0% $-655	+5% $-564	+10% $-473
Rate	-1.0pp $-491	-0.5pp $-572	base $-655	+0.5pp $-739	+1.0pp $-825

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.20mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.22mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.40mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.67mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	1.02mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	1.19mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	1.38mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $324,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $329,000 Active 895-char remark
17. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus
18. 2024-05-20
    soldstatus Sold 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Welcome Home to 40638 Goldeneye Place in Magnolia's Master Planner Community of Audubon. 2022 Devon Streets Home 1 story offers many upgrades throughout- luxury vinyl plank flooring, designer light fixtures, light & neutral paint color, large extended back patio, beautiful landscaping front & back yards. Wonderful natural light & storage. Environment For Living Home- installed solar panels offers highly efficient energy usage per month. Front yard maintenance provided by HOA. Enjoy natural beauty of this community with parks & walking trails. newly approved multi-use high end apartments, shopping & ding complex to be built at front of community. Future amenities in community - pool, clubhouse, more parks, walking trails! Exemplary Magnolia ISD schools. Excellent location to location shopping. dining & major highways. Make your appointment today!

19. 2024-05-02
    status Pending 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Welcome Home to 40638 Goldeneye Place in Magnolia's Master Planner Community of Audubon. 2022 Devon Streets Home 1 story offers many upgrades throughout- luxury vinyl plank flooring, designer light fixtures, light & neutral paint color, large extended back patio, beautiful landscaping front & back yards. Wonderful natural light & storage. Environment For Living Home- installed solar panels offers highly efficient energy usage per month. Front yard maintenance provided by HOA. Enjoy natural beauty of this community with parks & walking trails. newly approved multi-use high end apartments, shopping & ding complex to be built at front of community. Future amenities in community - pool, clubhouse, more parks, walking trails! Exemplary Magnolia ISD schools. Excellent location to location shopping. dining & major highways. Make your appointment today!

20. 2024-04-24
    status Option Pending 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Welcome Home to 40638 Goldeneye Place in Magnolia's Master Planner Community of Audubon. 2022 Devon Streets Home 1 story offers many upgrades throughout- luxury vinyl plank flooring, designer light fixtures, light & neutral paint color, large extended back patio, beautiful landscaping front & back yards. Wonderful natural light & storage. Environment For Living Home- installed solar panels offers highly efficient energy usage per month. Front yard maintenance provided by HOA. Enjoy natural beauty of this community with parks & walking trails. newly approved multi-use high end apartments, shopping & ding complex to be built at front of community. Future amenities in community - pool, clubhouse, more parks, walking trails! Exemplary Magnolia ISD schools. Excellent location to location shopping. dining & major highways. Make your appointment today!

21. 2024-04-15
    listed $319,000 Active 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Welcome Home to 40638 Goldeneye Place in Magnolia's Master Planner Community of Audubon. 2022 Devon Streets Home 1 story offers many upgrades throughout- luxury vinyl plank flooring, designer light fixtures, light & neutral paint color, large extended back patio, beautiful landscaping front & back yards. Wonderful natural light & storage. Environment For Living Home- installed solar panels offers highly efficient energy usage per month. Front yard maintenance provided by HOA. Enjoy natural beauty of this community with parks & walking trails. newly approved multi-use high end apartments, shopping & ding complex to be built at front of community. Future amenities in community - pool, clubhouse, more parks, walking trails! Exemplary Magnolia ISD schools. Excellent location to location shopping. dining & major highways. Make your appointment today!

22. 2024-04-15
    historical

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Welcome Home to 40638 Goldeneye Place in Magnolia's Master Planner Community of Audubon. 2022 Devon Streets Home 1 story offers many upgrades throughout- luxury vinyl plank flooring, designer light fixtures, light & neutral paint color, large extended back patio, beautiful landscaping front & back yards. Wonderful natural light & storage. Environment For Living Home- installed solar panels offers highly efficient energy usage per month. Front yard maintenance provided by HOA. Enjoy natural beauty of this community with parks & walking trails. newly approved multi-use high end apartments, shopping & ding complex to be built at front of community. Future amenities in community - pool, clubhouse, more parks, walking trails! Exemplary Magnolia ISD schools. Excellent location to location shopping. dining & major highways. Make your appointment today!

23. 2024-04-12
    price $319,000
24. 2024-01-24
    price $328,500
25. 2024-01-16
    status Active
26. 2023-10-10
    historical
27. 2023-10-05
    historical $2,300
28. 2023-09-29
    listed $2,300
29. 2023-09-23
    price $335,000
30. 2023-08-14
    price $355,000
31. 2023-07-23
    price $369,000
32. 2023-07-12
    listed $375,000 Active
33. 2022-06-16
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2022-03-17
    status Pending
35. 2022-03-10
    price $320,990
36. 2022-03-05
    listed $315,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,758 · $480/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,946 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 3.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$5,758
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$13,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Price Changed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $328,500 HARMLS
• 2024-01-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-10-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-14 Price Changed $355,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-23 Price Changed $369,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-12 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-10 Price Changed $320,990 HARMLS
• 2022-03-05 Listed $315,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+80.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,758 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.