854 Stokes St · Danville, VA 24541

$49,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 743 Days on market

Built 1940 7,109 sqft lot $43/sqft · 15% below area Est $58k · 15% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great investment opportunity. Property has great potential, it just needs some major TLC.

Key facts

• Major tlc
• 7,109 sq ft lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• MAJOR TLC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $806 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 743 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 743 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.25%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,462
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -14.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
827 Stokes St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,286 (+11%)	7mo	$27,000	$21	67
660 Franklin St	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,134 (-2%)	3mo	$225,000	$198	60
324 Garfield St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-1%)	6mo	$180,000	$156	53
1419 Betts St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,272 (+10%)	17mo	$60,000	$47	47
140 Mabin St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+14%)	13mo	$240,000	$182	38
217 Watson St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,227 (+6%)	23mo	$99,900	$81	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $43,259
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.43×
• Total profit: $103,752
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24541

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $115/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $370

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
717 Temple Ave Danville, VA	3.0	1.5	1327	$1,179	$0.89	43d	1	0.30mi
1244 Stokes St Danville, VA	4.0	1.0	1153	$1,100	$0.95	43d	1	0.42mi
721 Chatham Ave Unit A Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	13d	1	1.40mi
181 Banner St Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,389	$1.18	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 743 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 742 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 741 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 740 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 739 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 737 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 736 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 734 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 733 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 732 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 731 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 728 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 726 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 725 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 724 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 723 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    status Active 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    A great investment opportunity. Property has great potential, it just needs some major TLC.

18. 2025-12-01
    status Active 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    A great investment opportunity. Property has great potential, it just needs some major TLC.

19. 2024-08-15
    price $49,900 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    A great investment opportunity. Property has great potential, it just needs some major TLC.

20. 2024-05-29
    listed $54,900 Active 91-char remark

    Show marketing remark (91 chars)

    A great investment opportunity. Property has great potential, it just needs some major TLC.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $115 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$24/mo · 254.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$115
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $9,404
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,257
• After-tax cash flow: $7,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 28,042
• Household income: $51,427
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1399.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.28%
• Current HPI: 238.5992
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Relisted — DRRAR
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — DRRAR
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $49,900 DRRAR
• 2024-05-29 Listed $54,900 DRRAR

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $115 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.