5375 Shawn St · Peck, MI 48422

$30,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 327 Days on market

Built 1995 8,000 sqft lot Est $32k · 7% under $460/mo HOA · 37% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIRST 2 MONTHS FREE! Check out this 3 bed 2 full bathroom updated manufactured home. Brand new carpet and clean inside, updated mechanicals, and new metal roof. Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron! Perfect vacation home with little to no maintenance or move right in and make this your primary residence! * house is handicap accessible *

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Handicap accessible
• 8,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEW METAL ROOF
• HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $460 monthly fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared well water; Shared septic
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 100

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#502 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Croswell-Lexington Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #239 of 540 in MI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.05%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,400
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2237 Ranae St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	7mo	$20,000	$17	92
2299 Bart St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (0%)	9mo	$48,000	$40	83
2239 Brent St	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	16mo	$30,500	$27	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $15,973
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $41,573
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48422

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$460
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $845

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $460 · $5,520/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Active
2. 2026-03-27
   historical
3. 2025-12-31
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   FIRST 2 MONTHS FREE! Check out this 3 bed 2 full bathroom updated manufactured home. Brand new carpet and clean inside, updated mechanicals, and new metal roof. Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron! Perfect vacation home with little to no maintenance or move right in and make this your primary residence! * house is handicap accessible *

4. 2025-12-31
   status Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   FIRST 2 MONTHS FREE! Check out this 3 bed 2 full bathroom updated manufactured home. Brand new carpet and clean inside, updated mechanicals, and new metal roof. Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron! Perfect vacation home with little to no maintenance or move right in and make this your primary residence! * house is handicap accessible *

5. 2025-12-31
   historical

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   FIRST 2 MONTHS FREE! Check out this 3 bed 2 full bathroom updated manufactured home. Brand new carpet and clean inside, updated mechanicals, and new metal roof. Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron! Perfect vacation home with little to no maintenance or move right in and make this your primary residence! * house is handicap accessible *

6. 2025-12-31
   historical 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   FIRST 2 MONTHS FREE! Check out this 3 bed 2 full bathroom updated manufactured home. Brand new carpet and clean inside, updated mechanicals, and new metal roof. Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron! Perfect vacation home with little to no maintenance or move right in and make this your primary residence! * house is handicap accessible *

7. 2025-11-04
   price $30,000 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   FIRST 2 MONTHS FREE! Check out this 3 bed 2 full bathroom updated manufactured home. Brand new carpet and clean inside, updated mechanicals, and new metal roof. Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron! Perfect vacation home with little to no maintenance or move right in and make this your primary residence! * house is handicap accessible *

8. 2025-11-03
   price $30,000
9. 2025-06-30
   listed $35,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   FIRST 2 MONTHS FREE! Check out this 3 bed 2 full bathroom updated manufactured home. Brand new carpet and clean inside, updated mechanicals, and new metal roof. Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron! Perfect vacation home with little to no maintenance or move right in and make this your primary residence! * house is handicap accessible *

10. 2025-06-30
    listed $35,000 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    FIRST 2 MONTHS FREE! Check out this 3 bed 2 full bathroom updated manufactured home. Brand new carpet and clean inside, updated mechanicals, and new metal roof. Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron! Perfect vacation home with little to no maintenance or move right in and make this your primary residence! * house is handicap accessible *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − HOA: −$5,520
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $3,955
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$949
• After-tax cash flow: $2,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Croswell-Lexington Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611140
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,784
• Composite: 32.49/100
• National rank: #5707
• State rank: #239 of 540 in MI

Livability — Peck

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #14853

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,172

Population outlook (Sanilac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,948 people
• By 2030: 35,772 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 30,996 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,280 · -30.7%
• By 2075: 17,471 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 10,572 · -72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sanilac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.5% · R 73.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.65%
• Current HPI: 268.6695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-31 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-31 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $30,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $30,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-30 Listed $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-30 Listed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS