160 Mike Gartrell Cir · Sacramento, CA 95835

$499,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2003 6,721 sqft lot $331/sqft · 15% below area Est $586k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this thoughtfully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the desirable Regency Park neighborhood of North Natomas, where comfort, simplicity, and location come together without the added cost of an HOA. The smart, open layout makes everyday living easy, with a welcoming main living area, a well-appointed kitchen, and a primary suite with private bath. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing families. Fresh interior paint and new flooring gives the home a crisp, move-in ready feel from the moment you walk through the door. What truly sets this home apart is the care and investment put into it. Major foundation upgrades have been completed, givi

Key facts

• Quick freeway access
• Tree-lined streets
• Nearby dog park

Tags

• MAJOR FOUNDATION UPGRADES
• NATIVE CALIFORNIA LANDSCAPING
• QUICK FREEWAY ACCESS
• NEARBY DOG PARK
• TREE-LINED STREETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt electric; Irrigation connected
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Built in 2003; Spanish tile roof
• Construction: Detached construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Front landscaping; Low-maintenance yard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area / nook; Pantry closet; Kitchen island; Tile countertops; Free standing gas range; Free standing gas oven; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower stall(s), double sinks, tub, walk-in closet and window; Other bathroom(s) with tub/shower combo and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans; Fireplace heating feature
• Interior features: One-story layout; Front porch; Uncovered patio; Living room with gas-piped fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Electric and gas hook-up

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (40.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (42.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Regency Park Elementary (723 students, 69% FRL); Norwood Junior High (406 students, 83% FRL); Rio Linda High (1,596 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,432 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.79%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $586,021
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -14.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2048 Odin Walk	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,414 (-6%)	1mo	$454,900	$322	72
2054 Odin Walk	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,414 (-6%)	2mo	$450,000	$318	72
1839 Dawnelle Way	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (+1%)	1mo	$510,000	$334	70
2280 Rose Arbor Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (+3%)	1mo	$443,135	$285	66
360 N Mill Valley Cir	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (+3%)	1mo	$445,000	$286	64
2217 Ryedale Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+2%)	2mo	$507,500	$330	64
1795 Zurlo Way	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (+1%)	1mo	$548,000	$359	64
5336 Wadsworth Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-5%)	0mo	$505,000	$354	58
5376 Nickman Way	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,685 (+12%)	1mo	$499,000	$296	57
1615 Sandmark	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-10%)	0mo	$510,000	$376	53
2138 Sherington Way	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+11%)	2mo	$560,000	$336	53
2270 Rose Arbor Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	0mo	$419,000	$323	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $166,524
• Equity at exit: $420,166

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $533,433
• Equity at exit: $876,567

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$485 /mo · $5,825/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $-1,149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,349

Max offer price $296,058

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-866	-5% $-1,008	+0% $-1,149	+5% $-1,290	+10% $-1,431
Rent	-10% $-1,377	-5% $-1,263	+0% $-1,149	+5% $-1,034	+10% $-920
Rate	-1.0pp $-898	-0.5pp $-1,022	base $-1,149	+0.5pp $-1,278	+1.0pp $-1,410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
142 Mike Gartrell Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2231	$2,975	$1.33	4d	1	0.06mi
2001 Club Center Dr #3110 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.5	1154	$2,195	$1.90	6d	1	0.35mi
50 Regency Park Cir #9106 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1384	$2,495	$1.80	45d	1	0.44mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	19d	3	0.46mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	23d	2	0.46mi
1947 Acari Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,695	$1.81	0d	1	0.47mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	3d	1	0.47mi
1850 Club Center Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,499	$2.54	0d	8	0.51mi
1700 Charm Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,595	$1.15	0d	1	0.52mi
1834 Zurlo Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1525	$2,850	$1.87	45d	1	0.54mi
5317 Buckwood Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2030	$3,050	$1.50	0d	1	0.57mi
1445 Dreamy Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,695	$1.79	0d	1	0.74mi
1536 Alicia Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1397	$2,700	$1.93	45d	1	0.81mi
4850 Natomas Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,540	$3.03	0d	17	1.08mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	0d	1	1.18mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	45d	1	1.30mi
35 Klondike Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2144	$3,000	$1.40	0d	1	1.33mi
1926 Ivycrest Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,695	$1.65	45d	1	1.38mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	1.45mi
4601 Blackrock Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,529	$2.69	0d	8	1.48mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $499,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $499,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,825 · $485/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,825 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$5,825
• − Insurance: −$3,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,779
• − Management: −$2,779
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$23,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,548
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,825 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.