2410 Lancaster Dr SE #955 · Salem, OR 97317

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Manufactured public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1992 $65/sqft · 28% above area Est $93k · 28% over ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this clean, spacious 1,822 sq ft manufactured home in the Sundial 55+ park community. With a generous open floor plan & thoughtful major updates that bring peace of mind— new roof (‘24), new heat pump/air conditioning, water heater & updated decking (all in ‘22)— this home offers comfort, functionality, & easy living. Inside you’ll find expansive natural light & a bright, inviting feel with a smooth flow between the kitchen, living, & dining rooms that’s perfect for both everyday life & life's most special gatherings. The covered porches & patio, front lawn, & storage shed provide great outdoor spaces for relaxing, visiting with friends & staying organized. Enjoy year-round comfort with central air conditioning & appreciate the accessibility of a wheelchair ramp from the generously sized carport. Beyond the home itself, the park amenities further set this property apart. Residents can enjoy an active & vibrant lifestyle with a swimming pool, hot tub, pickleball court, gym, dog park, billiard tables, & an impressive calendar of activities including live music, bunco, pinochle, cooking demos, fitness classes, potlucks, birthday parties & more. There’s always something to do & a welcoming community to be part of. Conveniently tucked in off of Lancaster Dr SE with easy access to shopping, dining, medical facilities & major roadways while still providing a quiet neighborhood setting. If you’re seeking a move-in ready home with valuable upgrades & outstanding amenities, this is one you won’t want to miss. Buyer to be approved by park management. More park information available upon request.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Covered porches
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WATER HEATER
• UPDATED DECKING
• COVERED PORCHES
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $972 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $119k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $108,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.02%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,203
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 27.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4348 Essex St	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+3%)	2mo	$35,000	$19	78
2232 42nd Ave SE #807	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+4%)	20mo	$117,000	$62	67
3100 Turner Rd SE #421	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,746 (-4%)	0mo	$260,000	$149	61
4244 Eden St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-14%)	15mo	$92,500	$59	55
3296 Turner Rd SE	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-2%)	18mo	$120,000	$67	48
3340 Turner Rd SE	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-11%)	3mo	$128,000	$79	44
3100 Turner (620) Rd SE	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-14%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	44
3100 Turner Rd SE #620	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-14%)	1mo	$200,000	$128	43
3100 Turner Rd SE #101	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,931 (+6%)	22mo	$284,000	$147	40
3210 Turner Rd SE	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (-10%)	14mo	$80,000	$49	37
3100 Turner Rd SE #308	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-11%)	13mo	$255,000	$157	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $41,816
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $112,772
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,733/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	43d	1	0.55mi
4776 Buffalo Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1369	$2,150	$1.57	43d	1	1.02mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,958	$2.03	14d	26	1.26mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $119,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    listed $139,000 Active 1740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1740 chars)

    Welcome to this clean, spacious 1,822 sq ft manufactured home in the Sundial 55+ park community. With a generous open floor plan & thoughtful major updates that bring peace of mind— new roof (‘24), new heat pump/air conditioning, water heater & updated decking (all in ‘22)— this home offers comfort, functionality, & easy living. Inside you’ll find expansive natural light & a bright, inviting feel with a smooth flow between the kitchen, living, & dining rooms that’s perfect for both everyday life & life's most special gatherings. The covered porches & patio, front lawn, & storage shed provide great outdoor spaces for relaxing, visiting with friends & staying organized. Enjoy year-round comfort with central air conditioning & appreciate the accessibility of a wheelchair ramp from the generously sized carport. Beyond the home itself, the park amenities further set this property apart. Residents can enjoy an active & vibrant lifestyle with a swimming pool, hot tub, pickleball court, gym, dog park, billiard tables, & an impressive calendar of activities including live music, bunco, pinochle, cooking demos, fitness classes, potlucks, birthday parties & more. There’s always something to do & a welcoming community to be part of. Conveniently tucked in off of Lancaster Dr SE with easy access to shopping, dining, medical facilities & major roadways while still providing a quiet neighborhood setting. If you’re seeking a move-in ready home with valuable upgrades & outstanding amenities, this is one you won’t want to miss. Buyer to be approved by park management. More park information available upon request.

16. 2019-06-30
    historical
17. 2019-05-30
    listed $129,900 Active
18. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 2004-09-08
    historical
20. 2004-07-08
    listed $69,900
21. 1999-03-30
    soldstatus $327,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,733 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,733 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,733
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $10,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,493
• After-tax cash flow: $9,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-57.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $139,000 RMLS
• 2019-06-30 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2019-05-30 Listed $129,900 WVMLS
• 2004-10-01 Sold (MLS) $65,000 WVMLS
• 2004-09-08 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2004-07-08 Listed $69,900 WVMLS
• 1999-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $327,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,733 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.