287 Dustin Rd · Kuttawa, KY 42055

$77,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1966 0.56 ac lot $164/sqft · 71% above area Est $74k · at est. ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home conveniently located just minutes from Lake Barkley, Grand Rivers, and Eddyville. Property offers excellent potential for a weekend retreat, investment property, or primary residence. With some TLC, this home could be transformed into a charming fishing cabin or Airbnb. Great opportunity in a desirable location near local attractions and recreational areas.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 56 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($777 rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 0.9% in Kuttawa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#268 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lyon County (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($532 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Lyon County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,690 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.05%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,415
• List price: $77,000
• Delta: 3.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $25,675
• Equity at exit: $41,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $69,810
• Equity at exit: $68,913

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42055

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $187/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $77,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $77,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $77,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath manufactured home conveniently located just minutes from Lake Barkley, Grand Rivers, and Eddyville. Property offers excellent potential for a weekend retreat, investment property, or primary residence. With some TLC, this home could be transformed into a charming fishing cabin or Airbnb. Great opportunity in a desirable location near local attractions and recreational areas.

17. 2024-09-16
    price $92,000
18. 2024-08-30
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $187 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 254.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$187
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$746
• − Management: −$746
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $709
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $1,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyon County
• NCES district ID: 2103690
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,899
• Composite: 40.94/100
• National rank: #3607
• State rank: #13 of 165 in KY

Livability — Kuttawa

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #13075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,496

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,330 people
• By 2030: 8,308 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 8,196 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 8,069 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 8,131 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 6,856 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 22.7% · R 76.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+44.0 2012: R+27.1 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Current HPI: 219.1432
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $77,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $92,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-08-30 Listed $99,000 WKRMLS