Albany Plan · Hutto, TX 78634

$290,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This low-maintenance, single-story residence features an open floorplan shared between the family room, dining room and kitchen, situated at the heart of the home. The owner's suite can be found at the back, while two secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer. A covered patio offers seamless indoor-outdoor entertaining.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $290,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,033.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-575 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ray El (math 32% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 669 students, 47% FRL); Farley Middle (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 975 students, 44% FRL); Hutto H S (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,010 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1264 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,061 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.87%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,033
• List price: $290,999
• Delta: -7.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Canley Loop	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-12%)	2mo	$276,500	$217	75
204 Low Bramble Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+2%)	15mo	$315,000	$213	65
104 Milliner Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,502 (+4%)	20mo	$327,000	$218	55
504 Milliner Loop	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,638 (+13%)	2mo	$305,000	$186	53
116 Cotton Creek Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,389 (-4%)	6mo	$280,000	$202	53
210 Montego St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+13%)	7mo	$314,900	$192	49
506 Meadowside Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+6%)	15mo	$299,999	$196	44
116 Donnington Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+14%)	4mo	$301,990	$184	41
208 Magione St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	16mo	$335,000	$202	36
400 Camargue Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	14mo	$344,990	$208	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-93,204
• Equity at exit: $46,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-150,959
• Equity at exit: $27,065

Cash invested: $87,649 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $296,749 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 173 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1264
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,642
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,696/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,738

Max offer price $229,841

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-359	-5% $-467	+0% $-575	+5% $-683	+10% $-791
Rent	-10% $-734	-5% $-654	+0% $-575	+5% $-496	+10% $-416
Rate	-1.0pp $-417	-0.5pp $-495	base $-575	+0.5pp $-656	+1.0pp $-739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,258
• Closing costs: $9,391
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$5,925	$4.63	22d	1	0.11mi
132 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	67d	1	0.11mi
204 Longbridge Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,950	$1.30	32d	1	0.12mi
136 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,050	$1.10	17d	1	0.12mi
112 Wolseley Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,995	$1.23	13d	1	0.14mi
207 Coventry Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,950	$1.20	93d	1	0.20mi
318 Canley Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,900	$1.33	53d	1	0.25mi
607 Water Way Ave Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	47d	1	0.27mi
102 Sebring Cir Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,995	$1.19	28d	1	0.31mi
614 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,199	$1.32	52d	1	0.36mi
401 County Road 199 Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$2,494	$2.46	9d	74	0.36mi
104 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,950	$1.30	62d	1	0.47mi
120 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,150	$1.43	28d	1	0.52mi
230 Milliner Loop Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,100	$1.12	51d	1	0.62mi
322 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1009	$1,750	$1.73	34d	1	0.75mi
211 Camargue Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$2,090	$1.27	93d	1	0.78mi
201 Orchard Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,100	$1.24	17d	1	0.81mi
105 Twilight Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1725	$1,775	$1.03	27d	1	0.83mi
105 Twilight Way Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,775	$1.03	21d	1	0.83mi
107 Harvest Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	93d	1	0.84mi
107 Tanglewood Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,900	$1.26	67d	1	0.86mi
110 Meadowside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	991	$1,500	$1.51	93d	1	0.90mi
202 Evans St Unit 1 Hutto, TX	2.0	2.5	1084	$1,550	$1.43	13d	1	0.95mi
102 Aguilar Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	64d	1	0.96mi
102 Aguilar Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	67d	1	0.96mi
202 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,700	$1.19	71d	1	0.97mi
307 Camellia Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,000	$1.24	23d	1	0.98mi
107 Aguilar Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,750	$1.00	62d	1	0.98mi
201 Quail Cir Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,950	$1.37	93d	1	0.98mi
222 Camellia Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1864	$2,000	$1.07	47d	1	1.05mi
203 E Pecan St Unit B Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,900	$1.13	64d	1	1.06mi
202 Lucky Clover Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,800	$1.23	93d	1	1.07mi
111 Mossy Rock Cv Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,850	$1.27	41d	1	1.12mi
111 Mossy Rock Cv Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,850	$1.27	34d	1	1.12mi
110 Marimoor Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1863	$1,995	$1.07	32d	1	1.24mi
112 Creekside Dr Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1352	$1,875	$1.39	67d	1	1.26mi
112 Stellamar Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,100	$1.26	11d	1	1.28mi
1019 Stewart Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	1706	$2,000	$1.17	52d	1	1.29mi
1019 Stewart Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	1706	$2,000	$1.17	64d	1	1.29mi
207 Mitchell Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,000	$1.14	30d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $290,999 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $290,999 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $290,999 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $290,999 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $290,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $290,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $290,999 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $290,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $290,999 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $290,999 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $290,999 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $290,999 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $290,999 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $290,999 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,999 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $290,999 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $290,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $290,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $290,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $290,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $290,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $290,999 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $290,999 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $290,999 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $290,999 Active 137 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $290,999 Active 136 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $290,999 Active 135 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $290,999 Active 134 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $290,999 Active 133 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $290,999 Active 132 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $290,999 Active 131 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $290,999 Active 130 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $290,999 Active 128 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $290,999 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $290,999 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $290,999 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $290,999 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $290,999 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $290,999 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $290,999 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $290,999 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,999 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,999 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,999 Active 108 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,999 Active 107 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,999 Active 106 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,999 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,535
• − Property taxes: −$4,696
• − Insurance: −$1,565
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,930
• − Management: −$1,930
• − Depreciation: −$9,106
• Taxable loss: −$12,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,032
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,867/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,235–$21,705 screening

This low-maintenance, single-story residence is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern and open floor plan, and the exterior is well-maintained. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures enhance functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ray El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Farley Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Hutto H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hutto, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $290,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $290,990 Zillow