3019 18th St S · Moorhead, MN 56560

$182,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · Townhouse · 16 Days on market

Built 1978 1,198 sqft lot $175/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated and meticulously maintained! This 2 bed, 2 bath condo is ready for you to move in! You'll enjoy new kitchen cabinets, updated AC, and new patio doors. The master bedroom is spacious and offers a deck for you to relax on. Lower level features a family room with new wood flooring and an egress window for a future 3rd bedroom. New garage door will be installed. Schedule a showing before this one is gone!

Key facts

• $175 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing typical (mortgage type listed)
• HOA & community: Part of Country Squire Townhouse Condominiums; Monthly association fee of $175; HOA covers lawn care, grounds maintenance, and snow removal; Common garden amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property (townhouse/condo style); Two levels; Block foundation; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck, patio, and porch; Irregular lot frontage on a city street; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (includes main and upper level configuration)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen window; Informal dining area; Balcony, deck, patio, and porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room on lower level; Electric water heater; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-272/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Moorhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#143 in MN, #3,111 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moorhead Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #202 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 269 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $171,048 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-33,614
• Equity at exit: $27,211

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-41,448
• Equity at exit: $15,779

Cash invested: $51,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56560

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$957
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,990/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $178,500

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,625
• Closing costs: $5,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3046 18th St S Moorhead, MN	2.0	1.5	1250	$1,025	$0.82	43d	1	0.06mi
3540 18th St S Moorhead, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,495	$1.45	13d	17	0.25mi
1501 Belsly Blvd Moorhead, MN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1226	$1,550	$1.26	13d	5	0.30mi
3890 19th St S Moorhead, MN	4.0	2.0	2176	$2,345	$1.08	13d	1	0.56mi
1730 40th Ave S Moorhead, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$1,295	$1.20	13d	1	0.65mi
1102 28th Ave S Moorhead, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$1,825	$1.55	13d	35	0.69mi
900 30th Ave S Moorhead, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,775	$1.81	21d	19	0.74mi
1113 39th Ave S Moorhead, MN	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,000	$1.22	43d	1	0.85mi
802 37th Ave S Moorhead, MN	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1250	$1,892	$1.51	13d	5	0.90mi
1452 44th Ave S Moorhead, MN	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	43d	1	0.93mi
600 30th Ave S Moorhead, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,910	$2.01	13d	34	0.96mi
3603 33rd St S Moorhead, MN	4.0	2.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	43d	1	1.13mi
3615 33rd St S Moorhead, MN	4.0	3.0	2163	$2,550	$1.18	21d	1	1.13mi
3633 33rd St S Moorhead, MN	4.0	3.0	2163	$2,550	$1.18	43d	1	1.14mi
3719 33rd St S Moorhead, MN	3.0	2.0	1638	$2,275	$1.39	21d	1	1.16mi
3719 33rd St S Moorhead, MN	3.0	2.0	1638	$2,350	$1.43	43d	1	1.16mi
4546 13th St S Moorhead, MN	3.0	2.0	2310	$2,095	$0.91	43d	1	1.17mi
4402 Blue Stem Way Moorhead, MN	3.0	2.5	2166	$2,050	$0.95	13d	6	1.18mi
2289 35th Street Cir S Moorhead, MN	3.0	3.0	1818	$1,895	$1.04	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,500 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $182,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,500 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $182,500 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $182,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $182,500 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 204-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $182,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,017 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,223
• − Property taxes: −$1,990
• − Insurance: −$912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$5,309
• Taxable loss: −$3,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$790
• After-tax cash flow: $519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moorhead Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721420
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,009
• Composite: 36.83/100
• National rank: #4560
• State rank: #202 of 301 in MN

Livability — Moorhead

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #3111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moorhead, MN
• County: Clay County · 44,405 people
• City population: 44,405
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 44,405
• Household income: $75,406
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2229.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,880 people
• By 2030: 70,881 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 76,865 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 83,205 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 98,719 · +45.4%
• By 2100: 111,657 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Lithuanian 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.2% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+8.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.32%
• Current HPI: 177.038
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.41%
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+16.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $182,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-25 Sold (MLS) $145,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-06 Listed $154,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-02 Listed $156,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,990 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.