415 Elm St · Chetopa, KS 67336

$19,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1920 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Proximity to schools
• Oversized shop
• Detached shop

Tags

• OVERSIZED SHOP
• PRIME LOCATION
• DETACHED SHOP
• SPACIOUS LOT
• PROXIMITY TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $667 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#372 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chetopa-St. Paul (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #176 of 280 in KS (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Labette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $659 of equity ($135 loan paydown + $524 appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Labette County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,915 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 146.70%
• DSCR: 7.53
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,250
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 Maple St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,242 (-1%)	1mo	$125,000	$101	83
403 S 5th St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (+13%)	13mo	$69,000	$49	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.16×
• Total profit: $44,556
• Equity at exit: $8,426

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.22×
• Total profit: $99,464
• Equity at exit: $12,727

Cash invested: $5,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67336

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$102
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$24 /mo · $292/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $667

Break-even live

Break-even rent $171

Max offer price $19,500

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $681	-5% $674	+0% $667	+5% $661	+10% $654
Rent	-10% $587	-5% $627	+0% $667	+5% $708	+10% $748
Rate	-1.0pp $677	-0.5pp $672	base $667	+0.5pp $662	+1.0pp $657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,875
• Closing costs: $585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-09
   price $19,500
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $27,500 Active
4. 2016-01-12
   historical
5. 2015-10-19
   listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,092
• − Property taxes: −$292
• − Insurance: −$98
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − Depreciation: −$567
• Taxable income: $8,187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,965
• After-tax cash flow: $6,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chetopa-St. Paul
• NCES district ID: 2004770
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,256
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #12240
• State rank: #176 of 280 in KS

Livability — Chetopa

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #16774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chetopa, KS
• Population (ZIP): 1,186

Population outlook (Labette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,413 people
• By 2030: 18,552 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,701 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 14,832 · -23.6%
• By 2075: 11,046 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 8,020 · -58.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Labette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.2) · D 30.1% · R 68.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -12.9pp · 2024: -38.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.2 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+37.9 2012: R+20.2 2008: R+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Current HPI: 127.0262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $19,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $27,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-12 Listing Removed — SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-19 Listed $15,000 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid