2799 Pine Ridge Rd · Clay City, KY 40391

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 675 sqft · Other · 32 Days on market

Built 1955 2.18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If your looking for a fixer upper, this is it. House on 2 acres in the country with lots of potential. Laundry is off the kitchen, but floor is soft from a water leak. From the kitchen you will see a guest bath, dining and living area. To the left is a hallway that leads to 2 bedrooms, drywalled just needs to be finished. To the right of the living area is your master bedroom and bath. With some muscle and creativity, could make a great home.

Key facts

• 2.18 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 32 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 130-0000-014-00

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Basement parking/entry access
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built area approximately 675
• Exterior features: Many trees; Rural, wooded view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on the main level; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.2% in Clay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#428 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clark County (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #64 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William G. Conkwright Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 505 students, 70% FRL); Robert D. Campbell Jr. High (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 820 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $100k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.56%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $12,816
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $48,419
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40391

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $484	+0% $456	+5% $428	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $350	-5% $403	+0% $456	+5% $509	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $506	-0.5pp $481	base $456	+0.5pp $430	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $99,900 Active
19. 2012-12-21
    soldstatus $20,000
20. 2010-07-23
    soldstatus $20,000
21. 2010-07-23
    soldstatus $20,000
22. 2010-07-19
    historical
23. 2010-04-29
    listed $22,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 78.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$975
• After-tax cash flow: $4,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County
• NCES district ID: 2101200
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,282
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #6469
• State rank: #64 of 165 in KY

Livability — Clay City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #20794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clark County · 36,796 people
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 36,796
• Household income: $64,144
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,849 people
• By 2030: 35,616 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 34,727 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 33,195 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 29,439 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 24,744 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 66.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.1pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+25.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.24%
• Current HPI: 283.7839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+336.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $99,900 ImagineMLS
• 2012-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-23 Sold (MLS) $20,000 ImagineMLS
• 2010-07-19 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2010-04-29 Listed $22,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $480 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.