515 Belcross · San Antonio, TX 78237

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2006 6,098 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a no-HOA community. This home offers an open floor plan with a spacious living area, a functional kitchen featuring a walk-in pantry, and a formal dining room-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Additional features include an HVAC system, energy-efficient windows, an attached one-car garage, and washer/dryer connections. Recent updates include new carpet, new blinds, and a new water heater. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered front porch and a rear patio. Community amenities include a BBQ area and playground. Conveniently located near St. Mary's University, Monterey Park, and nearby swimming, aquatic, and tennis facilities, offering

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Formal dining room
• No-hoa community

Tags

• NO-HOA COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• HVAC SYSTEM
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Subdivision: ARROYA VISTA / ARROYO VISTA; Community amenities include park/playground and BBQ/grill

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Oversized parking available
• Utilities: Water service provided by SAWS; Sewer service provided by SAWS; Gas supplied by CPS; Electricity supplied by CPS; Garbage service by CPS
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Approximately 20 years old; Accessible/adaptive home with 2+ access exits, 36+ inch exterior doors and halls
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built by V&W Homes
• Exterior features: Cement fiber exterior; Park/playground and BBQ/grill in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Gas cooking; Dishwasher; Kitchen approx. 12 x 12; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ceiling fan and full bath (approximately 11 x 12); Bedroom 2 (approximately 10 x 10); Bedroom 3 (approximately 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination and single vanity (approximately 5 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heating available; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Smoke alarm; All window coverings remain; 1 living area with separate dining room; Walk-in pantry; Utility area in garage; Ground-level entry with no steps; All bedrooms located downstairs; Washer and dryer connections; Electric water heater; City garbage service
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Edgewood ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #812 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: L B Johnson El (math 14% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 348 students, 97% FRL); E T Wrenn Middle (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 496 students, 97% FRL); Memorial H S (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,246 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 872 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 24% district-wide (71 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,559 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $95,921
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $302,698
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78237

• Home prices YoY: 14.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,180/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,690

Max offer price $156,324

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-131	+0% $-185	+5% $-238	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-242	+0% $-185	+5% $-127	+10% $-70
Rate	-1.0pp $-90	-0.5pp $-137	base $-185	+0.5pp $-234	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4767 Lark San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,475	$1.18	12d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $189,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Back on Market 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Back on Market 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Back on Market 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Back on Market 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Back on Market 129 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Back on Market 128 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    status $189,000 Back on Market 127 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $189,000 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,180 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$279/yr (+$23/mo · 8.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,180
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$5,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edgewood ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818150
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $27,419
• Composite: 12.82/100
• National rank: #9597
• State rank: #812 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,379
• Household income: $42,772
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 50% White 3% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 66%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.52%
• Current HPI: 247.7257
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-01-24 Listed $189,000 LERA
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-15 Listed $189,000 LERA
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-08-25 Listed $190,000 LERA
• 2025-08-20 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-25 Listed $189,000 LERA
• 2024-12-22 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-06-22 Listed $205,000 LERA
• 2024-02-27 Listed $219,000 LERA
• 2024-02-27 Listing Removed — LERA

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,180 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.