4115 Turner Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1907 2,875 sqft lot $51/sqft · 67% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Instantly cash flow with this solid brick bungalow in the city's Mark Twain neighborhood! Recently placed a tenant with HUD lease that is fully subsidized at $929/month. Viewing only after accepted contract and AS-IS offers preferred (Special Sales Contract). Agents see remarks.

Key facts

• 2,875 sq ft lot
• Built 1907
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Concrete construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Basement with 8+ ft poured concrete
• Exterior features: Private lot; Native plants; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ashland Elem. And Br. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 226 students, 99% FRL); Vashon High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 568 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $50k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.50%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $30,017
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 66.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4250 E Kossuth Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+11%)	4mo	$70,000	$64	68
4275 E Ashland Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	938 (-5%)	2mo	$99,900	$107	67
4556 Carter Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	936 (-6%)	3mo	$67,500	$72	63
4729 Margaretta Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	982 (-1%)	2mo	$9,900	$10	63
4547 Bessie Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	906 (-8%)	4mo	$39,500	$44	59
4610 Penrose St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,053 (+6%)	3mo	$80,000	$76	57
4607 Lee Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	912 (-8%)	4mo	$25,000	$27	54
4627 Korte Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,072 (+8%)	2mo	$18,100	$17	52
4339 Linton	0.74mi	2/0.5	1,025 (+4%)	9mo	$33,333	$33	50
3114 Clarence Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (-7%)	10mo	$39,900	$43	49
4475 N Taylor Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	848 (-14%)	2mo	$80,000	$94	49
4610 Lexington Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	945 (-4%)	8mo	$35,000	$37	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $20,494
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $54,632
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $215/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $381

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $477	-5% $463	+0% $449	+5% $435	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $374	-5% $412	+0% $449	+5% $487	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $462	base $449	+0.5pp $436	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4426 Holly Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	15d	1	0.32mi
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	17d	1	0.36mi
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	45d	1	0.37mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	45d	1	0.55mi
4301 E Warne Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$525	$0.95	45d	1	0.60mi
4460 Bircher Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	1100	$725	$0.66	11d	1	0.65mi
3819 Kossuth Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.5	816	$725	$0.89	25d	1	0.77mi
4847 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,473	$1.47	3d	1	0.86mi
3516 Russell Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	560	$875	$1.56	8d	1	0.98mi
4627 Maffitt Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$795	$1.13	45d	1	1.00mi
4732 W Florissant Ave Unit 2nd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	45d	1	1.02mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	5d	1	1.03mi
3644 Natural Bridge Ave Apt 303 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	710	$825	$1.16	45d	1	1.05mi
3644 Natural Bridge Ave Apt 203 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	570	$680	$1.19	45d	1	1.05mi
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	45d	1	1.08mi
4908 W Florissant Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$695	$0.93	45d	1	1.16mi
2002 Obear Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	5d	1	1.18mi
1906 Obear Ave #1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	23d	1	1.23mi
5200 Von Phul St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	25d	1	1.23mi
1708 Annie Malone Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	924	$1,500	$1.62	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $50,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $50,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-04-30
    listed $69,800 Active 466-char remark
11. 2025-09-04
    soldstatus Closed 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Instantly cash flow with this solid brick bungalow in the city's Mark Twain neighborhood! Recently placed a tenant with HUD lease that is fully subsidized at $929/month. Viewing only after accepted contract and AS-IS offers preferred (Special Sales Contract). Agents see remarks.

12. 2025-07-28
    historical Active Under Contract 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Instantly cash flow with this solid brick bungalow in the city's Mark Twain neighborhood! Recently placed a tenant with HUD lease that is fully subsidized at $929/month. Viewing only after accepted contract and AS-IS offers preferred (Special Sales Contract). Agents see remarks.

13. 2025-07-24
    listed $55,000 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Instantly cash flow with this solid brick bungalow in the city's Mark Twain neighborhood! Recently placed a tenant with HUD lease that is fully subsidized at $929/month. Viewing only after accepted contract and AS-IS offers preferred (Special Sales Contract). Agents see remarks.

14. 2025-07-14
    historical $1,300
15. 2025-05-01
    listed $1,300
16. 2024-08-19
    historical
17. 2024-06-25
    price $49,900
18. 2024-05-28
    status Active
19. 2024-05-16
    status Pending
20. 2024-05-06
    status Active
21. 2024-05-06
    price $53,900
22. 2024-05-01
    historical
23. 2024-02-08
    price $55,100
24. 2023-12-22
    listed $56,900 Active
25. 2020-05-20
    soldstatus $16,000
26. 2020-05-19
    soldstatus $11,000
27. 2020-05-15
    listed $16,000 Active
28. 2020-05-15
    soldstatus Closed
29. 2004-02-24
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $215 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$270/yr (+$23/mo · 125.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$215
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $4,851
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,164
• After-tax cash flow: $4,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $69,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Listed $55,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Rental Removed $1,300 Hemlane
• 2025-05-01 Listed for Rent $1,300 Hemlane
• 2024-08-19 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-28 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Price Changed $53,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-01 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed $55,100 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-22 Listed $56,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-15 Listed $16,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-15 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $215 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.