Belmont Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$309,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · SingleFamily · 197 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

Key facts

• Single level
• Patio access
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• PATIO ACCESS

🏗️ New construction. The $309,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $406,257.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-887/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Ave Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,460/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $272,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,257
• List price: $309,999
• Delta: -23.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4671 Espiritu Way	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (+1%)	3mo	$320,000	$221	90
4260 Nevada St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+9%)	12mo	$365,000	$234	69
3983 Giesboro Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (+1%)	0mo	$316,635	$219	62
5060 Arancia Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+6%)	6mo	$384,500	$254	57
4540 Lamaida Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+9%)	15mo	$375,000	$241	56
4969 Seton St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+11%)	12mo	$450,000	$283	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-36,304
• Equity at exit: $97,126

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-5,996
• Equity at exit: $101,191

Cash invested: $113,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.9 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $368,994 ($235/sqft)
• Median days on market: 275 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,460 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,130
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$508 /mo · $6,094/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,554

Max offer price $395,557

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $66	+0% $-74	+5% $-214	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-211	+0% $-74	+5% $63	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $29	base $-74	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,564
• Closing costs: $12,188
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1867	$2,400	$1.29	3d	1	0.55mi
5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1867	$2,400	$1.29	3d	1	0.55mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	109d	1	0.57mi
5072 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1705	$3,150	$1.85	6d	1	0.63mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4210 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,750	$1.68	6d	1	0.75mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$3,400	$2.69	119d	1	0.75mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2305 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$2,800	$2.40	119d	1	0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$3,100	$2.57	119d	1	0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$3,100	$2.57	6d	1	0.80mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,900	$2.29	6d	1	0.85mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	119d	1	0.85mi
6015 Ellerston #911 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,800	$1.61	6d	1	0.86mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	0d	1	0.93mi
5069 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,650	$1.54	6d	1	1.01mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	116d	1	1.14mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	116d	1	1.22mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	119d	1	1.26mi
5615 Newcastle Ct #5212 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,295	$3.62	6d	1	1.34mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	119d	1	1.35mi
5661 Melbourne Ct Unit 8012 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,495	$1.43	9d	1	1.36mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	107d	1	1.36mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	116d	1	1.38mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	107d	1	1.38mi
5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	1088	$2,495	$2.29	119d	1	1.39mi
5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1088	$2,495	$2.29	6d	1	1.39mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,700	$3.61	6d	1	1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,495	$2.01	119d	1	1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4135 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,195	$1.96	119d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4143 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	119d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	6d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	116d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4118 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,700	$3.61	119d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4125 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	6d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2825 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	119d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	119d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2824 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,400	$1.76	6d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,795	$4.28	119d	1	1.41mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	119d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	119d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,795	$4.28	6d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price $309,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction, Belmont planLocated in Ave Maria, FL
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)Plan: Belmont
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1429Plan-built home (Belmont)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard builder kitchen (Belmont plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $309,999 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $309,999 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $309,999 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $309,999 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $309,999 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $309,999 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $309,999 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $309,999 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $309,999 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $309,999 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $309,999 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $309,999 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $309,999 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $309,999 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $309,999 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $309,999 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $309,999 Active 171 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $309,999 Active 170 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $309,999 Active 169 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $309,999 Active 168 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $309,999 Active 167 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $309,999 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $309,999 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $309,999 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $309,999 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $309,999 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $309,999 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $309,999 Active 159 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $309,999 Active 158 DOM
30. 2026-08-13
    days on market $309,999 Active 156 DOM
31. 2026-08-12
    days on market $309,999 Active 155 DOM
32. 2026-08-11
    days on market $309,999 Active 154 DOM
33. 2026-08-10
    days on market $309,999 Active 153 DOM
34. 2026-08-09
    days on market $309,999 Active 152 DOM
35. 2026-08-08
    days on market $309,999 Active 151 DOM
36. 2026-08-07
    days on market $309,999 Active 150 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $309,999 Active 149 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $309,999 Active 148 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $309,999 Active 147 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $309,999 Active 146 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $309,999 Active 143 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $309,999 Active 142 DOM
43. 2026-07-29
    days on market $309,999 Active 141 DOM
44. 2026-07-27
    days on market $309,999 Active 139 DOM
45. 2026-07-25
    days on market $309,999 Active 137 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $309,999 Active 136 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $309,999 Active 135 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $309,999 Active 134 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $309,999 Active 133 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,999 Active 130 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,757
• − Property taxes: −$6,094
• − Insurance: −$2,031
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,322
• − Management: −$3,322
• − Depreciation: −$11,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,877
• After-tax cash flow: $990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,145–$21,435 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a well-maintained exterior and landscaping, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic update to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price $309,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction, Belmont planLocated in Ave Maria, FL
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)Plan: Belmont
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1429Plan-built home (Belmont)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard builder kitchen (Belmont plan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based new construction)