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Belmont Plan 🏗️ New Construction
D Composite 44.59
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +10.7/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +6.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +4.5/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.2/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.1/10.0
  • DSCR +3.1/10.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0

$309,999

Belmont Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · SingleFamily · 243 Days on market
Good condition 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.

Key facts

  • Single level
  • Patio access
  • 2 garage spots

Tags

SINGLE LEVELOPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREAFULLY EQUIPPED KITCHENPATIO ACCESS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $309,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $401,145.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
  • Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Ave Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $3,266/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer $272,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.81% ✗
Cap rate
5.72%
Cash-on-cash
-2.05%
DSCR
0.91
GRM
10.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$401,145
List price
$309,999
Delta
-22.72%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
4671 Espiritu Way 0.00mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,448 (+1%) 4mo $320,000 $221 89
4675 Espiritu Way 0.00mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,602 (+12%) 2mo $330,000 $206 74
4176 Madison St 0.29mi 3/2.0 1,558 (+9%) 1mo $395,000 $254 71
4260 Nevada St 0.14mi 3/2.0 1,558 (+9%) 13mo $365,000 $234 68
3983 Giesboro Ln 0.66mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,448 (+1%) 2mo $316,635 $219 60
5060 Arancia Ln 0.61mi 3/2.0 1,513 (+6%) 7mo $384,500 $254 56
4540 Lamaida Ln 0.35mi 3/2.0 1,554 (+9%) 17mo $375,000 $241 55
4969 Seton St 0.67mi 3/2.0 1,588 (+11%) 13mo $450,000 $283 39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-9.0%
Equity multiple
0.61×
Total profit
$-43,431
Equity at exit
$95,904
10-year hold
IRR
-2.2%
Equity multiple
0.80×
Total profit
$-22,276
Equity at exit
$99,918

Cash invested: $112,321 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
24 active · 13 under contract
Months of supply
13.1 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$363,990 ($233/sqft)
Median days on market
204 d
This list price
12% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+20.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

Home prices YoY
-0.5%
Rents YoY
3.0%
Active inventory
695
Price-to-rent
7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$3,266 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,104
Tax est. 1.5%
−$501 /mo · $6,017/yr
Insurance
−$167
HOA
−$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$686
Net cashflow
$-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,509
Max offer price $373,337
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $85 -5% $-54 +0% $-192 +5% $-331 +10% $-469
Rent -10% $-450 -5% $-321 +0% $-192 +5% $-63 +10% $66
Rate -1.0pp $10 -0.5pp $-90 base $-192 +0.5pp $-296 +1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$100,286
Closing costs
$12,034
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4324 Annapolis Ave Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1662 $2,900 $1.74 10d 1 0.44mi
4324 Annapolis Ave Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1662 $2,900 $1.74 29d 1 0.44mi
5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1867 $2,400 $1.29 10d 1 0.55mi
5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1867 $2,400 $1.29 48d 1 0.55mi
5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1525 $2,400 $1.57 41d 1 0.55mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1525 $2,595 $1.70 154d 1 0.57mi
5072 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1705 $3,150 $1.85 51d 1 0.63mi
5072 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1705 $3,150 $1.85 10d 1 0.63mi
4330 Washington Pl Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1662 $2,600 $1.56 16d 1 0.69mi
4330 Washington Pl Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1662 $2,600 $1.56 10d 1 0.69mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4210 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 3.0 1635 $2,750 $1.68 51d 1 0.75mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1266 $3,400 $2.69 164d 1 0.75mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2305 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1166 $2,800 $2.40 164d 1 0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1206 $2,800 $2.32 10d 1 0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1206 $3,100 $2.57 164d 1 0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2203 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1254 $2,500 $1.99 9d 1 0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1206 $3,100 $2.57 51d 1 0.80mi
5008 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1726 $2,700 $1.56 10d 1 0.85mi
5008 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1726 $2,700 $1.56 35d 1 0.85mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1700 $3,900 $2.29 51d 1 0.85mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1700 $3,900 $2.29 10d 1 0.85mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1525 $4,000 $2.62 164d 1 0.85mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL 4.0 3.0 1500 $3,400 $2.27 6d 1 0.93mi
5265 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1726 $2,300 $1.33 9d 1 0.95mi
5069 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1717 $2,650 $1.54 51d 1 1.01mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.5 1680 $2,700 $1.61 162d 1 1.14mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $6,850 $3.70 162d 1 1.22mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $3,995 $2.16 164d 1 1.26mi
5615 Newcastle Ct #5212 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1741 $6,295 $3.62 10d 1 1.34mi
5615 Newcastle Ct #5212 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1741 $6,295 $3.62 51d 1 1.34mi
5408 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $7,995 $4.32 10d 1 1.34mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $10,995 $5.94 10d 1 1.35mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1741 $7,295 $4.19 152d 1 1.36mi
5661 Melbourne Ct Unit 8012 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1741 $2,495 $1.43 55d 1 1.36mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.5 1850 $3,695 $2.00 162d 1 1.38mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL 3.0 2.0 1741 $6,250 $3.59 152d 1 1.38mi
5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL 4.0 2.5 1088 $2,495 $2.29 164d 1 1.39mi
5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL 4.0 3.0 1088 $2,495 $2.29 10d 1 1.39mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1154 $5,795 $5.02 21d 1 1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4122 Ave Maria, FL 2.0 2.0 1154 $2,795 $2.42 10d 1 1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info
Listing price $309,999

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
Home design
New construction, Belmont planLocated in Ave Maria, FL
Construction
New construction (2026 listing)Plan: Belmont
Exterior features
Living area approximately 1429Plan-built home (Belmont)

Interior

Kitchen
Standard builder kitchen (Belmont plan)
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Interior features
Open living area (plan-based new construction)

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $309,999 Active 243 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $309,999 Active 242 DOM
  3. 2026-11-07
    days on market $309,999 Active 241 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $309,999 Active 240 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $309,999 Active 239 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $309,999 Active 237 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $309,999 Active 236 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $309,999 Active 235 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $309,999 Active 234 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $309,999 Active 233 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $309,999 Active 232 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $309,999 Active 231 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $309,999 Active 230 DOM
  14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $309,999 Active 229 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $309,999 Active 228 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $309,999 Active 227 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $309,999 Active 226 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $309,999 Active 225 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $309,999 Active 224 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $309,999 Active 223 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $309,999 Active 222 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $309,999 Active 221 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $309,999 Active 220 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $309,999 Active 219 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $309,999 Active 218 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $309,999 Active 217 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $309,999 Active 216 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $309,999 Active 215 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $309,999 Active 214 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $309,999 Active 213 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $309,999 Active 212 DOM
  32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $309,999 Active 211 DOM
  33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $309,999 Active 210 DOM
  34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $309,999 Active 209 DOM
  35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $309,999 Active 208 DOM
  36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $309,999 Active 207 DOM
  37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $309,999 Active 206 DOM
  38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $309,999 Active 205 DOM
  39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $309,999 Active 203 DOM
  40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $309,999 Active 202 DOM
  41. 2026-09-26
    days on market $309,999 Active 200 DOM
  42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $309,999 Active 199 DOM
  43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $309,999 Active 198 DOM
  44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $309,999 Active 197 DOM
  45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $309,999 Active 196 DOM
  46. 2026-09-20
    days on market $309,999 Active 194 DOM
  47. 2026-09-18
    days on market $309,999 Active 192 DOM
  48. 2026-09-17
    days on market $309,999 Active 191 DOM
  49. 2026-09-16
    days on market $309,999 Active 190 DOM
  50. 2026-09-15
    days on market $309,999 Active 189 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$39,191
− Mortgage interest
−$22,470
− Property taxes
−$6,017
− Insurance
−$2,006
− Repairs & maintenance
−$3,135
− Management
−$3,135
− Depreciation
−$11,670
Taxable loss
−$9,243
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,218
After-tax cash flow
$-88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,145–$21,435 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a well-maintained exterior and landscaping, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic update to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
  • Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Collier
NCES district ID
1200330
Math proficiency
60% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency
56% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$58,275
Composite
50.23/100
National rank
#1892
State rank
#16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
Ave Maria, FL
County
Collier County · 420,858 people
Metro
Naples-Marco Island, FL
Population (ZIP)
35,149
Household income
$62,333
Rent vs Own
48.7% rent · 51.3% own
Severe rent burden
12% of renters

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
420,858 people
By 2030
450,054 · +6.9%
By 2040
502,232 · +19.3%
By 2050
544,932 · +29.5%
By 2075
627,203 · +49.0%
By 2100
659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority Hispanic (63%)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
Languages at home
34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

2024 margin
Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
2008→2024 swing
-10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…