🏗️ New Construction
Belmont Plan · Ave Maria, FL
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
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- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +10.7/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +6.0/10.0
- Appreciation +4.5/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.2/5.0
- 1% rule +3.1/10.0
- DSCR +3.1/10.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
$309,999
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
This new home is laid out on a single level for low maintenance living. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall at the front of the home, while the owner's suite is tucked into the back corner with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the foyer is the open-concept living area, which includes a fully equipped kitchen, an intimate dining room and family room with patio access. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage.
Key facts
- Single level
- Patio access
- 2 garage spots
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
- Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Ave Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,266/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.81% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.72%
- Cash-on-cash
- -2.05%
- DSCR
- 0.91
- GRM
- 10.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $401,145
- List price
- $309,999
- Delta
- -22.72%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4671 Espiritu Way | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,448 (+1%) | 4mo | $320,000 | $221 | 89 |
| 4675 Espiritu Way | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,602 (+12%) | 2mo | $330,000 | $206 | 74 |
| 4176 Madison St | 0.29mi | 3/2.0 | 1,558 (+9%) | 1mo | $395,000 | $254 | 71 |
| 4260 Nevada St | 0.14mi | 3/2.0 | 1,558 (+9%) | 13mo | $365,000 | $234 | 68 |
| 3983 Giesboro Ln | 0.66mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,448 (+1%) | 2mo | $316,635 | $219 | 60 |
| 5060 Arancia Ln | 0.61mi | 3/2.0 | 1,513 (+6%) | 7mo | $384,500 | $254 | 56 |
| 4540 Lamaida Ln | 0.35mi | 3/2.0 | 1,554 (+9%) | 17mo | $375,000 | $241 | 55 |
| 4969 Seton St | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 | 1,588 (+11%) | 13mo | $450,000 | $283 | 39 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -9.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.61×
- Total profit
- $-43,431
- Equity at exit
- $95,904
- IRR
- -2.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.80×
- Total profit
- $-22,276
- Equity at exit
- $99,918
Cash invested: $112,321 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 24 active · 13 under contract
- Months of supply
- 13.1 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $363,990 ($233/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 204 d
- This list price
- 12% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +20.6% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34142
- Home prices YoY
- -0.5%
- Rents YoY
- 3.0%
- Active inventory
- 695
- Price-to-rent
- 7.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,266 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,104
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$501 /mo · $6,017/yr
- Insurance
- −$167
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$686
- Net cashflow
- $-192
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $85 | -5% $-54 | +0% $-192 | +5% $-331 | +10% $-469 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-450 | -5% $-321 | +0% $-192 | +5% $-63 | +10% $66 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $10 | -0.5pp $-90 | base $-192 | +0.5pp $-296 | +1.0pp $-402 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $100,286
- Closing costs
- $12,034
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4324 Annapolis Ave Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1662 | $2,900 | $1.74 | 10d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 4324 Annapolis Ave Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1662 | $2,900 | $1.74 | 29d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1867 | $2,400 | $1.29 | 10d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1867 | $2,400 | $1.29 | 48d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1525 | $2,400 | $1.57 | 41d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1525 | $2,595 | $1.70 | 154d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 5072 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1705 | $3,150 | $1.85 | 51d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 5072 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1705 | $3,150 | $1.85 | 10d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 4330 Washington Pl Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1662 | $2,600 | $1.56 | 16d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 4330 Washington Pl Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1662 | $2,600 | $1.56 | 10d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 5068 Annunciation Cir #4210 Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1635 | $2,750 | $1.68 | 51d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1266 | $3,400 | $2.69 | 164d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 5076 Annunciation Cir #2305 Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1166 | $2,800 | $2.40 | 164d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1206 | $2,800 | $2.32 | 10d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1206 | $3,100 | $2.57 | 164d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 5076 Annunciation Cir #2203 Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1254 | $2,500 | $1.99 | 9d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1206 | $3,100 | $2.57 | 51d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 5008 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1726 | $2,700 | $1.56 | 10d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 5008 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1726 | $2,700 | $1.56 | 35d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1700 | $3,900 | $2.29 | 51d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1700 | $3,900 | $2.29 | 10d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1525 | $4,000 | $2.62 | 164d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1500 | $3,400 | $2.27 | 6d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 5265 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1726 | $2,300 | $1.33 | 9d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 5069 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1717 | $2,650 | $1.54 | 51d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1680 | $2,700 | $1.61 | 162d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1850 | $6,850 | $3.70 | 162d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1850 | $3,995 | $2.16 | 164d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 5615 Newcastle Ct #5212 Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1741 | $6,295 | $3.62 | 10d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 5615 Newcastle Ct #5212 Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1741 | $6,295 | $3.62 | 51d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 5408 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1850 | $7,995 | $4.32 | 10d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1850 | $10,995 | $5.94 | 10d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1741 | $7,295 | $4.19 | 152d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 5661 Melbourne Ct Unit 8012 Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1741 | $2,495 | $1.43 | 55d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1850 | $3,695 | $2.00 | 162d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1741 | $6,250 | $3.59 | 152d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1088 | $2,495 | $2.29 | 164d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1088 | $2,495 | $2.29 | 10d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $5,795 | $5.02 | 21d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 5583 Double Eagle Cir #4122 Ave Maria, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $2,795 | $2.42 | 10d | 1 | 1.40mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info
- Listing price $309,999
Exterior
- Parking
- 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
- Home design
- New construction, Belmont planLocated in Ave Maria, FL
- Construction
- New construction (2026 listing)Plan: Belmont
- Exterior features
- Living area approximately 1429Plan-built home (Belmont)
Interior
- Kitchen
- Standard builder kitchen (Belmont plan)
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Interior features
- Open living area (plan-based new construction)
Listing history 50 events
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2026-11-08days on market $309,999 Active 243 DOM
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2026-11-07days on market $309,999 Active 242 DOM
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2026-11-07days on market $309,999 Active 241 DOM
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2026-11-05days on market $309,999 Active 240 DOM
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2026-11-04days on market $309,999 Active 239 DOM
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2026-11-02days on market $309,999 Active 237 DOM
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2026-11-01days on market $309,999 Active 236 DOM
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2026-10-31days on market $309,999 Active 235 DOM
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2026-10-30days on market $309,999 Active 234 DOM
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2026-10-29days on market $309,999 Active 233 DOM
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2026-10-28days on market $309,999 Active 232 DOM
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2026-10-27days on market $309,999 Active 231 DOM
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2026-10-26days on market $309,999 Active 230 DOM
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2026-10-25days on market $309,999 Active 229 DOM
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2026-10-24days on market $309,999 Active 228 DOM
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2026-10-23days on market $309,999 Active 227 DOM
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2026-10-22days on market $309,999 Active 226 DOM
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2026-10-21days on market $309,999 Active 225 DOM
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2026-10-20days on market $309,999 Active 224 DOM
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2026-10-19days on market $309,999 Active 223 DOM
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2026-10-18days on market $309,999 Active 222 DOM
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2026-10-17days on market $309,999 Active 221 DOM
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2026-10-16days on market $309,999 Active 220 DOM
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2026-10-15days on market $309,999 Active 219 DOM
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2026-10-14days on market $309,999 Active 218 DOM
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2026-10-13days on market $309,999 Active 217 DOM
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2026-10-12days on market $309,999 Active 216 DOM
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2026-10-11days on market $309,999 Active 215 DOM
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2026-10-10days on market $309,999 Active 214 DOM
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2026-10-09days on market $309,999 Active 213 DOM
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2026-10-08days on market $309,999 Active 212 DOM
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2026-10-07days on market $309,999 Active 211 DOM
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2026-10-07days on market $309,999 Active 210 DOM
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2026-10-05days on market $309,999 Active 209 DOM
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2026-10-04days on market $309,999 Active 208 DOM
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2026-10-04days on market $309,999 Active 207 DOM
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2026-10-02days on market $309,999 Active 206 DOM
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2026-10-01days on market $309,999 Active 205 DOM
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2026-09-29days on market $309,999 Active 203 DOM
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2026-09-28days on market $309,999 Active 202 DOM
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2026-09-26days on market $309,999 Active 200 DOM
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2026-09-25days on market $309,999 Active 199 DOM
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2026-09-24days on market $309,999 Active 198 DOM
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2026-09-23days on market $309,999 Active 197 DOM
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2026-09-22days on market $309,999 Active 196 DOM
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2026-09-20days on market $309,999 Active 194 DOM
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2026-09-18days on market $309,999 Active 192 DOM
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2026-09-17days on market $309,999 Active 191 DOM
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2026-09-16days on market $309,999 Active 190 DOM
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2026-09-15days on market $309,999 Active 189 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $39,191
- − Mortgage interest
- −$22,470
- − Property taxes
- −$6,017
- − Insurance
- −$2,006
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,135
- − Management
- −$3,135
- − Depreciation
- −$11,670
- Taxable loss
- −$9,243
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,218
- After-tax cash flow
- $-88/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a well-maintained exterior and landscaping, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic update to enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Collier
- NCES district ID
- 1200330
- Math proficiency
- 60% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 56% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,275
- Composite
- 50.23/100
- National rank
- #1892
- State rank
- #16 of 73 in FL
Livability — Ave Maria
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Ave Maria, FL
- County
- Collier County · 420,858 people
- Metro
- Naples-Marco Island, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 35,149
- Household income
- $62,333
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 12% of renters
Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 420,858 people
- By 2030
- 450,054 · +6.9%
- By 2040
- 502,232 · +19.3%
- By 2050
- 544,932 · +29.5%
- By 2075
- 627,203 · +49.0%
- By 2100
- 659,015 · +56.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority Hispanic (63%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
- Languages at home
- 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%
Political lean MEDSL · Collier
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1.05%
- Current HPI
- 226.9105
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.95%
- Metro
- Naples-Marco Island, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…