2621 Canal Dr N · Combee Settlement, FL 33801

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,367 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1955 10,193 sqft lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE AND OUTSIDE! THIS 3 BEDROOM ONE BATH HOME IS MOVE IN READY. SPACE SAVER KITCHEN WITH NEWER CABINETS AND GRANITE COUNTER TOPS. ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY. HOME FEATURES LIVING ROOM PLUS OVER SIZED FAMILY ROOM. WOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND FAMILY ROOM. INSIDE LAUNDRY. ROOF WAS INSTALLED MARCH 2018. HOME HAS BEEN REPLUMBED. FENCED IN BACK YARD. WORKSHOP IN BACK YARD. COVERED PARKING FOR RV. SCREENED PATIO ON FRONT AND BACK OF HOUSE. CALL TODAY AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME.

Key facts

• Septic tank
• Living room
• Hot water heater

Tags

• HOT WATER HEATER
• SEPTIC TANK
• ROOF LESS THAN 10 YEARS OLD
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEW INTERIOR DOORS
• LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned C-3; Lot size approximately 0.23 acres (70 x 125), paved road access

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); RV carport and RV parking/access
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area (per public records): 1,367 living area; 1,671 total building area
• Exterior features: Covered and screened patio/porch; Outdoor lighting; Exterior storage; Chain link fence; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($457/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Combee Academy of Design And Engineering (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 551 students, 60% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,237 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,432
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,664
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,240/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $95	+0% $38	+5% $-18	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-34	+0% $38	+5% $110	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $89	base $38	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2415 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	25d	1	0.40mi
2721 Doyle Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,795	$1.39	25d	1	0.47mi
1602 Leslie Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,250	$1.37	12d	1	0.56mi
1452 Ridge Lake Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	23d	1	0.62mi
635 Meridian Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	5d	1	0.64mi
2155 Lone Oak Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,100	$1.41	25d	1	0.87mi
2184 Colonial Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,645	$1.46	25d	1	1.42mi
2400 Timbercreek Loop W Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1108	$1,910	$1.72	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $219,900
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $239,900 Active
3. 2023-10-30
   historical
4. 2023-05-04
   listed $240,000 Active
5. 2023-01-23
   soldstatus $240,000
6. 2023-01-20
   soldstatus $240,000 Closed 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE AND OUTSIDE! THIS 3 BEDROOM ONE BATH HOME IS MOVE IN READY. SPACE SAVER KITCHEN WITH NEWER CABINETS AND GRANITE COUNTER TOPS. ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY. HOME FEATURES LIVING ROOM PLUS OVER SIZED FAMILY ROOM. WOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND FAMILY ROOM. INSIDE LAUNDRY. ROOF WAS INSTALLED MARCH 2018. HOME HAS BEEN REPLUMBED. FENCED IN BACK YARD. WORKSHOP IN BACK YARD. COVERED PARKING FOR RV. SCREENED PATIO ON FRONT AND BACK OF HOUSE. CALL TODAY AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME.

7. 2022-12-30
   status Pending 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE AND OUTSIDE! THIS 3 BEDROOM ONE BATH HOME IS MOVE IN READY. SPACE SAVER KITCHEN WITH NEWER CABINETS AND GRANITE COUNTER TOPS. ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY. HOME FEATURES LIVING ROOM PLUS OVER SIZED FAMILY ROOM. WOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND FAMILY ROOM. INSIDE LAUNDRY. ROOF WAS INSTALLED MARCH 2018. HOME HAS BEEN REPLUMBED. FENCED IN BACK YARD. WORKSHOP IN BACK YARD. COVERED PARKING FOR RV. SCREENED PATIO ON FRONT AND BACK OF HOUSE. CALL TODAY AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME.

8. 2022-11-04
   status Active 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE AND OUTSIDE! THIS 3 BEDROOM ONE BATH HOME IS MOVE IN READY. SPACE SAVER KITCHEN WITH NEWER CABINETS AND GRANITE COUNTER TOPS. ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY. HOME FEATURES LIVING ROOM PLUS OVER SIZED FAMILY ROOM. WOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND FAMILY ROOM. INSIDE LAUNDRY. ROOF WAS INSTALLED MARCH 2018. HOME HAS BEEN REPLUMBED. FENCED IN BACK YARD. WORKSHOP IN BACK YARD. COVERED PARKING FOR RV. SCREENED PATIO ON FRONT AND BACK OF HOUSE. CALL TODAY AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME.

9. 2022-11-03
   historical 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE AND OUTSIDE! THIS 3 BEDROOM ONE BATH HOME IS MOVE IN READY. SPACE SAVER KITCHEN WITH NEWER CABINETS AND GRANITE COUNTER TOPS. ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY. HOME FEATURES LIVING ROOM PLUS OVER SIZED FAMILY ROOM. WOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND FAMILY ROOM. INSIDE LAUNDRY. ROOF WAS INSTALLED MARCH 2018. HOME HAS BEEN REPLUMBED. FENCED IN BACK YARD. WORKSHOP IN BACK YARD. COVERED PARKING FOR RV. SCREENED PATIO ON FRONT AND BACK OF HOUSE. CALL TODAY AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME.

10. 2022-08-27
    price $245,900 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE AND OUTSIDE! THIS 3 BEDROOM ONE BATH HOME IS MOVE IN READY. SPACE SAVER KITCHEN WITH NEWER CABINETS AND GRANITE COUNTER TOPS. ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY. HOME FEATURES LIVING ROOM PLUS OVER SIZED FAMILY ROOM. WOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND FAMILY ROOM. INSIDE LAUNDRY. ROOF WAS INSTALLED MARCH 2018. HOME HAS BEEN REPLUMBED. FENCED IN BACK YARD. WORKSHOP IN BACK YARD. COVERED PARKING FOR RV. SCREENED PATIO ON FRONT AND BACK OF HOUSE. CALL TODAY AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME.

11. 2022-07-11
    listed $249,900 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    NEWLY PAINTED INSIDE AND OUTSIDE! THIS 3 BEDROOM ONE BATH HOME IS MOVE IN READY. SPACE SAVER KITCHEN WITH NEWER CABINETS AND GRANITE COUNTER TOPS. ALL KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY. HOME FEATURES LIVING ROOM PLUS OVER SIZED FAMILY ROOM. WOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM AND FAMILY ROOM. INSIDE LAUNDRY. ROOF WAS INSTALLED MARCH 2018. HOME HAS BEEN REPLUMBED. FENCED IN BACK YARD. WORKSHOP IN BACK YARD. COVERED PARKING FOR RV. SCREENED PATIO ON FRONT AND BACK OF HOUSE. CALL TODAY AND MAKE THIS YOUR NEW HOME.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,240 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,240 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,240
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$692
• After-tax cash flow: $1,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Combee Settlement

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Combee Settlement, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-04 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-20 Sold (MLS) $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-27 Price Changed $245,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-11 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+19.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,240 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.