31 Knotty Pine Ln · Orange, TX 77630

$164,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1952 Est $246k · 33% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and Explore this very spacious and adorable home on a corner lot.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 110 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Orange-Stark El (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 1,130 students, 94% FRL); West Orange-Stark Middle (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 505 students, 92% FRL); West Orange-Stark H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 660 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,293 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,728
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Knotty Pine Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	2,318 (+6%)	1mo	$259,900	$112	89
2140 Live Oak Rd	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,242 (+2%)	4mo	$259,900	$116	86
11 Regency	0.42mi	3/2.5	2,088 (-5%)	1mo	$249,900	$120	69
2309 Tilley Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,121 (-3%)	5mo	$219,900	$104	67
2308 Tilley Cir	0.44mi	3/1.5	2,194 (0%)	24mo	$99,500	$45	58
1705 Burton Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,249 (+2%)	23mo	$179,900	$80	57
2600 Country Club Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,142 (-2%)	17mo	$249,900	$117	56
1210 17th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,877 (-14%)	15mo	$45,000	$24	38
3117 Pebble Beach Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,975 (-10%)	22mo	$237,000	$120	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,208
• Equity at exit: $56,413

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $44,164
• Equity at exit: $75,034

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,836/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,777

Max offer price $146,293

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-59	+0% $-106	+5% $-153	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-171	+0% $-106	+5% $-41	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-64	base $-106	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 Wrenway Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1551	$1,775	$1.14	15d	1	0.51mi
1117 18th St Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1716	$1,500	$0.87	45d	1	0.56mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	15d	27	0.57mi
20 Pinewood Cir Orange, TX	3.0	2.5	2252	$2,150	$0.95	45d	1	1.03mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 401 Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,725	$1.01	23d	1	1.33mi
4417 Willowglen St Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,650	$1.00	15d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   price $164,999
3. 2026-01-20
   price $175,999
4. 2025-12-20
   listed $194,999 Active
5. 2024-05-21
   soldstatus Closed 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Come and Explore this very spacious and adorable home on a corner lot.

6. 2024-05-21
   historical 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Come and Explore this very spacious and adorable home on a corner lot.

7. 2024-05-21
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Come and Explore this very spacious and adorable home on a corner lot.

8. 2024-04-16
   listed $155,800 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Come and Explore this very spacious and adorable home on a corner lot.

9. 2014-01-17
   soldstatus 330-char remark

   Show marketing remark (330 chars)

   Charming and contemporary! Home is spacious with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, formal dinning, a bonus room off kitchen and a large living room. Home is on a corner lot and is centrally located. Home also features a screened-in porch, an oversized concrete driveway with a 2 car attached garage. Minutes from shopping and restaurants.

10. 2013-12-19
    listed $68,000 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Charming and contemporary! Home is spacious with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, formal dinning, a bonus room off kitchen and a large living room. Home is on a corner lot and is centrally located. Home also features a screened-in porch, an oversized concrete driveway with a 2 car attached garage. Minutes from shopping and restaurants.

11. 2012-01-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,836 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,836 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$4,836
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$947
• After-tax cash flow: $-324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+142.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $164,999 BBOR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $175,999 BBOR
• 2025-12-20 Listed $194,999 BBOR
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-21 Delisted — BBOR
• 2024-05-21 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2024-04-16 Listed $155,800 BBOR
• 2014-01-17 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2013-12-19 Listed $68,000 BBOR
• 2012-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,836 · +61.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.