315 W Oscar Gonzalez Ave · Elsa, TX 78541

$76,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2006 6,098 sqft lot $88/sqft · 70% above area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and cozy mobile home that truly feels like home! The interior offers a warm and inviting atmosphere that makes the space comfortable and welcoming from the moment you walk in. Sitting on a spacious lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, parking, or future possibilities. Properties that offer both a comfortable home and this much lot space at a great value are hard to find. Don’t miss out on this opportunity!

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Outdoor enjoyment
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#648 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Edcouch-Elsa ISD (suburban): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #822 of 826 in TX (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,160 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.88%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,169
• List price: $76,000
• Delta: 104.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $2,392
• Equity at exit: $11,332

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $18,370
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78541

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,561/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $76,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Tulipan Dr Elsa, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$995	$0.98	43d	1	0.42mi
811 N Carlson St Elsa, TX	3.0	2.0	750	$950	$1.27	43d	1	0.46mi
300 Sylvia Handy Dr Unit 205 Elsa, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$825	$0.91	43d	1	1.07mi
300 Sylvia Handy Dr Unit 217 Elsa, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$800	$0.88	43d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $76,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $76,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $76,000 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Charming and cozy mobile home that truly feels like home! The interior offers a warm and inviting atmosphere that makes the space comfortable and welcoming from the moment you walk in. Sitting on a spacious lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, parking, or future possibilities. Properties that offer both a comfortable home and this much lot space at a great value are hard to find. Don’t miss out on this opportunity!

16. 2026-04-02
    price $85,000 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Charming and cozy mobile home that truly feels like home! The interior offers a warm and inviting atmosphere that makes the space comfortable and welcoming from the moment you walk in. Sitting on a spacious lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, parking, or future possibilities. Properties that offer both a comfortable home and this much lot space at a great value are hard to find. Don’t miss out on this opportunity!

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $90,000 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Charming and cozy mobile home that truly feels like home! The interior offers a warm and inviting atmosphere that makes the space comfortable and welcoming from the moment you walk in. Sitting on a spacious lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, parking, or future possibilities. Properties that offer both a comfortable home and this much lot space at a great value are hard to find. Don’t miss out on this opportunity!

18. 2024-04-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,561 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,561 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,561
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $1,881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$451
• After-tax cash flow: $2,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edcouch-Elsa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818060
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $25,724
• Composite: 10.99/100
• National rank: #9744
• State rank: #822 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elsa

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #648
• US rank: #12248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elsa, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 8,608
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,710
• Household income: $52,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 49% White 8% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 73% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.63%
• Current HPI: 215.1057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $76,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $85,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $90,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,561 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.