16333 Severn Ln · Fort Worth, TX 76247

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,507 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2012 7,187 sqft lot $192/sqft · 10% below area Est $321k · 10% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy comfortable living in this well-maintained 3bed 2bath home featuring granite countertops and durable ceramic tile in all wet areas. Freshly updated with new carpet and interior paint throughout, the home feels clean, bright, and move-in ready. New Windows and exterior doors. Roof Replaced in 2023. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room to relax, entertain, or play. Located in a desirable master-planned community with access to a neighborhood playground and community pool, this home is ideally positioned in the growing Justin, North Fort Worth area near the Alliance Corridor. Enjoy quick access to major highways, top employers, and a wide variety of dining, shopping, and entertainment options, all just minutes away.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Community pool
• Exterior doors

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE
• NEW WINDOWS
• EXTERIOR DOORS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1498 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13384% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,427 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,446
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -9.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1312 Castlegar Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,601 (+6%)	8mo	$299,000	$187	74
1320 Tierra Blanca Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-4%)	12mo	$357,375	$247	73
1344 Tierra Blanca Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+8%)	11mo	$363,590	$224	65
1113 Milfoil Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-3%)	4mo	$315,000	$216	62
1356 Tierra Blanca Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+8%)	14mo	$356,735	$220	62
1441 Elkford Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,601 (+6%)	12mo	$305,000	$191	60
16021 Tottenhall Pass	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+13%)	2mo	$339,000	$199	58
1233 Western Yarrow Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (+4%)	11mo	$330,000	$211	52
1225 Western Yarrow Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-7%)	11mo	$315,000	$224	52
15812 Culford Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+11%)	7mo	$329,500	$197	48
16444 Cowboy Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-9%)	9mo	$245,900	$179	47
15912 Leinster Pass	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+8%)	12mo	$339,500	$208	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-69,730
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-107,766
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1498
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,709

Max offer price $245,918

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16329 Severn Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2093	$2,550	$1.22	17d	1	0.03mi
1212 Amazon Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,950	$1.29	43d	1	0.07mi
16408 Severn Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,475	$1.35	24d	1	0.12mi
16453 Severn Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	1d	1	0.17mi
1325 Amazon Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,050	$1.27	11d	1	0.20mi
1104 Highway 114 Justin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,287	$2.44	1d	18	0.26mi
16012 Bronte Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2142	$2,600	$1.21	43d	1	0.28mi
16028 Bronte Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2127	$2,595	$1.22	24d	1	0.29mi
16028 Bronte Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,550	$1.21	43d	1	0.29mi
1401 Elkford Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,400	$1.28	24d	1	0.30mi
949 Schuberts Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,900	$1.44	4d	1	0.59mi
949 Schuberts Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,900	$1.44	1d	1	0.59mi
1104 Milfoil Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$2,500	$1.43	1d	1	0.61mi
1224 Napier Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2185	$2,650	$1.21	43d	1	0.61mi
1724 Arbuckle Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,850	$1.12	18d	1	0.66mi
1275 Western Yarrow Ave Justin, TX	3.0	3.0	2099	$2,750	$1.31	24d	1	0.67mi
1708 Sierra Meadow Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,125	$1.29	21d	1	0.70mi
16661 Woodside Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,809	$1.31	24d	1	0.70mi
1617 Rialto Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,940	$1.14	12d	1	0.72mi
1009 Croxley Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	18d	1	0.73mi
1705 Carolina Ridge Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,945	$1.29	43d	1	0.74mi
15736 Hazelhurst Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2186	$2,600	$1.19	11d	1	0.75mi
1104 Superbloom Ave Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1992	$3,000	$1.51	24d	1	0.80mi
1713 Baxter Springs Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2093	$2,200	$1.05	43d	1	0.82mi
1705 Diamond Lake Trl Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,850	$1.47	43d	1	0.85mi
16701 Windthorst Way Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,950	$1.42	43d	1	0.87mi
1033 Southwark Dr , TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,600	$1.29	43d	1	0.87mi
1101 Southwark Dr Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$2,600	$1.28	18d	1	0.88mi
1012 Southwark Dr Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2098	$2,550	$1.22	43d	1	0.90mi
1724 Trego Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,900	$1.11	43d	1	0.90mi
15525 Canford Ter Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	2127	$2,599	$1.22	18d	1	0.93mi
1309 Water Canna Dr Northlake, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1833	$2,533	$1.38	1d	18	0.97mi
1329 Water Canna Dr Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,403	$1.50	43d	1	0.98mi
1336 Water Canna Dr Justin, TX	4.0	3.0	1914	$2,819	$1.47	43d	1	0.98mi
15508 Via Ballena Carrollton, TX	4.0	2.0	2186	$2,600	$1.19	18d	1	0.99mi
1973 Lariat Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,895	$1.26	18d	1	1.01mi
1444 Indian Mallow Ct Northlake, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$3,020	$1.46	12d	1	1.05mi
1440 Native Blooms Way Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,760	$1.62	7d	1	1.09mi
1453 Native Blooms Way Northlake, TX	3.0	2.0	1707	$2,760	$1.62	21d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $289,900 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,900 Active Option Contract 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,900 Active Option Contract 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,900 Active Option Contract 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Active Option Contract 53 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Active Option Contract 52 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   price $2,100
8. 2026-05-06
   listed $2,150
9. 2026-05-01
   price $289,900 735-char remark

   Show marketing remark (735 chars)

   Enjoy comfortable living in this well-maintained 3bed 2bath home featuring granite countertops and durable ceramic tile in all wet areas. Freshly updated with new carpet and interior paint throughout, the home feels clean, bright, and move-in ready. New Windows and exterior doors. Roof Replaced in 2023. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room to relax, entertain, or play. Located in a desirable master-planned community with access to a neighborhood playground and community pool, this home is ideally positioned in the growing Justin, North Fort Worth area near the Alliance Corridor. Enjoy quick access to major highways, top employers, and a wide variety of dining, shopping, and entertainment options, all just minutes away.

10. 2026-04-09
    historical $2,150

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    Enjoy comfortable living in this well-maintained 3bed 2bath home featuring granite countertops and durable ceramic tile in all wet areas. Freshly updated with new carpet and interior paint throughout, the home feels clean, bright, and move-in ready. New Windows and exterior doors. Roof Replaced in 2023. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room to relax, entertain, or play. Located in a desirable master-planned community with access to a neighborhood playground and community pool, this home is ideally positioned in the growing Justin, North Fort Worth area near the Alliance Corridor. Enjoy quick access to major highways, top employers, and a wide variety of dining, shopping, and entertainment options, all just minutes away.

11. 2026-04-09
    listed $295,000 Active 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    Enjoy comfortable living in this well-maintained 3bed 2bath home featuring granite countertops and durable ceramic tile in all wet areas. Freshly updated with new carpet and interior paint throughout, the home feels clean, bright, and move-in ready. New Windows and exterior doors. Roof Replaced in 2023. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room to relax, entertain, or play. Located in a desirable master-planned community with access to a neighborhood playground and community pool, this home is ideally positioned in the growing Justin, North Fort Worth area near the Alliance Corridor. Enjoy quick access to major highways, top employers, and a wide variety of dining, shopping, and entertainment options, all just minutes away.

12. 2026-03-18
    listed $2,150

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,525 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,525 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$5,525
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$7,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,915
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $2,100 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed for Rent $2,150 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $289,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $2,150 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Listed for Rent $2,150 NTREIS

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,525 · +45.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.