54 Greenbrier · Kelly Ridge, CA 95966

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1979 7,841 sqft lot Est $333k · 37% under $3/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NICE LOCATION ON GREENBRIER IN KELLY RIDGE!! LARGE 2 BED 2 BA. The mobile home is very spacious and roomy. Lots of windows in the living and dining area.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Access via paved county road
• HOA & community: Part of Kelly Ridge Estates Owners Association; Annual association fee of $30; Community amenities include watersports, lake access, fishing, hiking, biking, horse trails, golf course and foothills

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway; Driveway slopes down from street; RV access/parking
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water (district/public); Public sewer / sewer connected; Electricity connected with 220V in kitchen and laundry; Cable available; Telephone on property
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Faces west; Turnkey condition; Accessible features with 36-inch (or wider) halls and inward-swinging doors
• Construction: Aluminum exterior; Composition roof; Pier jack foundation; Built in (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Covered deck/patio; Awning; Sprinkler system; Front yard; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric stove; Range hood; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Ice maker; Breakfast counter/bar and formal dining room; Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level); 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 main-level bathrooms; Separate tub and walk-in shower; Double sinks; Linen closet/storage
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with propane furnace; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Wood product walls; Built-in shelving/cabinets; Pantry; Formica counters; Double door entry; Mirrored closet doors; Drapes/curtains, blinds and screens; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors; Security system; One-level living; Side entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($636/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in Kelly Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#765 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,603 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,312
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5066 Royal Oaks	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	3mo	$147,000	$102	82
43 Hercules Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (+0%)	9mo	$395,000	$264	65
51 Apache Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,414 (-5%)	3mo	$266,500	$188	61
223 Almond Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5	1,502 (+1%)	7mo	$535,000	$356	61
6185 Kanaka Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (-5%)	8mo	$295,000	$210	59
68 Hercules Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,373 (-8%)	1mo	$370,000	$269	56
6228 Woodman Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,604 (+8%)	10mo	$350,000	$218	50
6129 Kanaka Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+11%)	11mo	$370,000	$224	48
498 Silver Leaf Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,700 (+14%)	9mo	$384,500	$226	46
12 Executive Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (+8%)	11mo	$357,500	$223	41
6020 Kanaka Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,274 (-14%)	10mo	$265,000	$208	40
71 Galaxy Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,671 (+12%)	10mo	$374,999	$224	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,578
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-22,630
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $925/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,599

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $209,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $925 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 71.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$925
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$2,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $1,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Kelly Ridge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #765
• US rank: #22221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelly Ridge, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $209,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $925 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.