2969 Stratford Mill Rd · Stonecrest, GA 30038

$263,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1972 0.46 ac lot $124/sqft · 6% below area Est $279k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2969 Stratford Mill in Lithonia, GA 30038. This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a solid layout with over 2,100 sq. ft. of living space and sits on a nice lot with good potential. Main level features include a spacious family room with a fireplace, a separate dining area, and an eat-in kitchen with ample cabinet space. Upstairs offers well-sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a private bath. Home includes a 2-car garage and a backyard with space for future improvements, outdoor living, or landscaping ideas. Property needs updates and is being sold strictly as-is, making it a good opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, parks, and major highways for easy access around metro Atlanta. Bring your vision and take advantage of the potential this property has to offer.

Key facts

• Backyard with space
• Private bath
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• PRIVATE BATH
• BACKYARD WITH SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road surface: asphalt and other; Road frontage: county road and other; Directions: use GPS; County: Dekalb, GA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other electric/utilities
• Home design: Multi/split levels; Fee simple ownership; Resale condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Other roof; Foundation details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Deck; Back yard fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Stained cabinets; Pantry; Other kitchen features
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Three upper-level bedrooms; Two lower-level bedrooms; Bedroom features: Other
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (main level); Master bath with tub/shower combination and other features
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: One fireplace in the family room; No common walls (detached); Basement with both interior and exterior entry; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Browns Mill Elementary School (math 5% / reading 24%, grade F, #988 of 1,228 statewide, top 81%, 383 students, 100% FRL); Salem Middle School (math 5% / reading 16%, grade F, #429 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 988 students, 100% FRL); Martin Luther King- Jr. High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,440 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,187 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,565
• List price: $263,000
• Delta: -39.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3094 Oxbridge Way	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+6%)	6mo	$261,000	$116	70
4804 Thompson Mill Rd	0.23mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,331 (+10%)	2mo	$195,000	$84	64
3000 Stratford Mill Rd	0.10mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,366 (+12%)	7mo	$150,000	$63	60
4995 Panola Mill Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,198 (+4%)	6mo	$188,000	$86	55
5004 Jack Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,256 (+6%)	7mo	$325,000	$144	55
3202 Wintercreeper Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,999 (-6%)	1mo	$145,700	$73	52
5123 Jack Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,228 (+5%)	8mo	$293,500	$132	46
4860 Longview Run	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,257 (+6%)	15mo	$318,500	$141	45
5015 Jack Dr	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+8%)	10mo	$333,000	$145	44
3240 Corktree Trl	0.71mi	4/2.5	1,895 (-11%)	8mo	$255,000	$135	43
4715 Wildginger Run	0.64mi	4/3.0	1,827 (-14%)	3mo	$180,000	$99	42
3019 Havenwood Way	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,407 (+13%)	12mo	$346,000	$144	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-47,613
• Equity at exit: $39,214

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,256
• Equity at exit: $22,739

Cash invested: $73,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30038

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$494 /mo · $5,926/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,510

Max offer price $238,186

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-66	+0% $-140	+5% $-215	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-325	-5% $-233	+0% $-140	+5% $-48	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-74	base $-140	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,750
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2878 Snapfinger Mnr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1670	$1,780	$1.07	5d	1	0.48mi
2993 Havenwood Way Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	2655	$2,300	$0.87	45d	1	0.54mi
4936 Longview Run Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	2238	$2,900	$1.30	45d	1	0.67mi
4948 Longview Run Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1892	$2,135	$1.13	7d	1	0.67mi
5108 Jack Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1872	$2,185	$1.17	26d	1	0.68mi
3095 Riders Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1800	$4,500	$2.50	1d	1	0.69mi
5388 Winding Glen Dr Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	2251	$2,230	$0.99	45d	1	0.70mi
2559 Walden Lake Dr Unit 1 Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,000	$1.37	45d	1	0.72mi
2937 Thompson Cir Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,860	$1.26	4d	1	0.73mi
2545 Walden Lake Dr Unit 1 Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,000	$1.37	45d	1	0.73mi
5038 Longview Walk Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1577	$1,995	$1.27	45d	1	0.74mi
2564 Treadway Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,950	$1.53	45d	1	0.81mi
4917 Longview Walk Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1486	$2,000	$1.35	23d	1	0.83mi
2658 Avanti Way Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1616	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.83mi
2884 Thompson Cir Decatur, GA	4.0	3.5	2868	$6,400	$2.23	26d	1	0.85mi
4908 Longview Walk Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,000	$1.35	45d	1	0.85mi
100 Cavalier Xing Stonecrest, GA	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,990	$1.28	26d	1	0.93mi
2569 Terrace Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	3.0	1752	$1,800	$1.03	45d	1	0.96mi
2563 Terrace Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	3.0	1752	$1,950	$1.11	15d	1	0.97mi
2553 Terrace Trl Unit 2553 Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,950	$1.05	15d	1	0.98mi
2525 Terrace Trl Unit 2525 Decatur, GA	3.0	3.0	1593	$1,850	$1.16	15d	1	1.02mi
2481 Terrace Trl Decatur, GA	3.0	3.0	1752	$2,050	$1.17	45d	1	1.12mi
3468 Deer Trce Lithonia, GA	3.0	1.0	1886	$2,800	$1.48	26d	1	1.21mi
5089 Galleon Xing Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	2488	$2,460	$0.99	46d	1	1.22mi
4955 Windsor Downs Ln Decatur, GA	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,050	$1.09	7d	1	1.25mi
2450 Northmill Ln Decatur, GA	4.0	2.5	2046	$2,135	$1.04	45d	1	1.31mi
4926 Windsor Downs Ln Decatur, GA	4.0	3.5	1675	$1,000	$0.60	1d	1	1.31mi
4433 Golf Vista Cir Decatur, GA	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,350	$0.90	26d	1	1.37mi
4909 Truitt Ln Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,500	$1.47	45d	1	1.38mi
4919 Wilkins Station Dr Decatur, GA	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,161	$1.22	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $263,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $263,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $168,640 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $168,640 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $168,640 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $168,640 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $168,640 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-04-08
    price $168,640 244-char remark
11. 2025-12-31
    historical
12. 2025-12-31
    historical
13. 2025-10-29
    price $195,840 244-char remark
14. 2025-09-25
    listed $214,880 Active 244-char remark
15. 2025-07-30
    listed $315,000 New
16. 2025-07-30
    listed $315,000 Active
17. 2023-08-14
    soldstatus $315,000
18. 2023-08-07
    soldstatus $315,000 Sold
19. 2023-08-07
    soldstatus $315,000 Closed
20. 2023-06-15
    status Pending
21. 2023-06-15
    status Under Contract
22. 2023-06-08
    status Price Change
23. 2023-06-08
    status Active
24. 2023-06-08
    price $314,900
25. 2023-06-08
    price $314,900
26. 2023-05-01
    status Under Contract
27. 2023-05-01
    status Pending
28. 2023-04-27
    listed $289,900 New
29. 2023-04-27
    listed $289,900 Active
30. 2022-05-12
    price $1,895
31. 2014-10-30
    price $23,900
32. 2012-07-20
    historical
33. 2012-07-20
    soldstatus $26,267 Sold
34. 2012-06-05
    historical Pending Approval
35. 2012-06-05
    price $26,267
36. 2012-05-29
    price $23,900
37. 2012-05-26
    price $45,900
38. 2012-05-08
    listed $55,000 New
39. 2004-02-24
    soldstatus $145,000
40. 1986-12-09
    soldstatus $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,926 · $494/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,926 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$5,926
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,239
• − Management: −$2,239
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable loss: −$6,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,469
• After-tax cash flow: $-217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Stonecrest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stonecrest, GA
• County: Dekalb County · 782,738 people
• City population: 106,165
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 43,776
• Household income: $73,694
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 4% Asian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.98%
• Current HPI: 192.8328
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+262.8% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $263,000 GAMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $263,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $168,640 MGMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $195,840 MGMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $315,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $315,000 FMLS
• 2023-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-07 Sold (MLS) $315,000 FMLS
• 2023-08-07 Sold (MLS) $315,000 GAMLS
• 2023-06-15 Pending — FMLS
• 2023-06-15 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-06-08 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-06-08 Relisted — FMLS
• 2023-06-08 Price Changed $314,900 GAMLS
• 2023-06-08 Price Changed $314,900 FMLS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-05-01 Pending — FMLS
• 2023-04-27 Listed $289,900 FMLS
• 2023-04-27 Listed $289,900 GAMLS
• 2022-05-12 Price Changed $1,895 RENT.
• 2014-10-30 Price Changed $23,900 GAMLS
• 2012-07-20 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-07-20 Sold (MLS) $26,267 GAMLS
• 2012-06-05 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2012-06-05 Price Changed $26,267 GAMLS
• 2012-05-29 Price Changed $23,900 GAMLS
• 2012-05-26 Price Changed $45,900 GAMLS
• 2012-05-08 Listed $55,000 GAMLS
• 2004-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1986-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,926 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.