16261 Bergara Bend Dr · Cleveland, TX 77327

$206,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $146/sqft · 15% below area Est $243k · 15% under $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! Presenting the Idlewood plan with Elevation "J3". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $207k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2106 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $184,367 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,409
• List price: $206,990
• Delta: -14.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16238 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+2%)	2mo	$210,990	$145	82
16270 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+3%)	1mo	$194,990	$133	82
16261 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+3%)	1mo	$191,990	$131	82
16253 Bergara Bend Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+3%)	2mo	$202,990	$139	81
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-8%)	3mo	$231,990	$177	81
16503 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+7%)	2mo	$213,990	$141	80
16257 Bergara Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-8%)	1mo	$162,991	$124	74
16214 Bergara Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-8%)	2mo	$162,991	$124	74
21540 Rustic Elm Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+2%)	3mo	$199,000	$138	74
16249 Bergara Bend Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+2%)	2mo	$208,990	$144	69
16554 Timberwolf Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+11%)	2mo	$248,990	$158	68
20942 Canary Wood Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (+9%)	3mo	$219,900	$142	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-41,467
• Equity at exit: $30,863

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-40,440
• Equity at exit: $17,897

Cash invested: $57,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 77 active · 61 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $230,000 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2106
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,085
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$259 /mo · $3,105/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,054

Max offer price $184,367

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-85	+0% $-156	+5% $-228	+10% $-299
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-230	+0% $-156	+5% $-83	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-52	-0.5pp $-104	base $-156	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,748
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21501 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	31d	1	0.54mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	61d	1	0.64mi
15815 Kropik Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,495	$1.01	45d	1	0.66mi
15127 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.71mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	120d	1	0.77mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,647	$0.92	20d	60	1.13mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2026Built by Lennar
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot settingComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen islandBreakfast barPantryWalk-in pantryOpen kitchen/dining layout
• Bedrooms: Space for 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen islandPantryWalk-in pantrySoaking tubKitchen/dining combo6 total rooms

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $206,990 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $206,990 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $206,990 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-27
   listed $206,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$3,105
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$5,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,090–$21,270 screening

This home is in excellent condition with recent renovations, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both New flooring in living areas — Improves aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Timber Lakes El F TX #3,311/4,322 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 713,896 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2026Built by Lennar
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot settingComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen islandBreakfast barPantryWalk-in pantryOpen kitchen/dining layout
• Bedrooms: Space for 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen islandPantryWalk-in pantrySoaking tubKitchen/dining combo6 total rooms

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $206,990 HARMLS