26262 County Road 21a #87 · Esparto, CA 95627

$159,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,742 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition $92/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the beautiful Senior (Age 55+) Community of Country Villa Mobile Estates in Esparto CA. Unit #87 - built in 1996 is a spacious home with 3 bedrooms & 1.5 bath rooms. Situated on the western edge of the park and surrounded by citrus trees, you will be greeted upon arrival with covered parking for 2 vehicles and a built in LIFT. The lift is in addition to the steps up to the covered patio/deck and provides wheelchair accessibility or just a lift for heavy items when needed. Inside you are treated to a sunny & bright cathedral ceilinged great room. The primary bedroom opens on your right with and ensuite bathroom and walk in closet. The kitchen is to your left with livin

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Built in lift
• Walk in closet

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• BUILT IN LIFT
• WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBILITY
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGED GREAT ROOM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#548 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Esparto Unified (town): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #454 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Esparto Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 452 students, 78% FRL); Esparto Middle (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #418 of 498 statewide, top 84%, 215 students, 80% FRL); Esparto High (math 30% / reading 15%, grade F, #939 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 273 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 61% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 721 units permitted in Yolo County in 2024 (260 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yolo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.05%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,000
• List price: $159,999
• Delta: -52.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26262 County Road 21a #36	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-12%)	3mo	$123,000	$80	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $19,410
• Equity at exit: $23,856

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $75,376
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95627

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $159,999

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $822	-5% $767	+0% $711	+5% $656	+10% $601
Rent	-10% $530	-5% $620	+0% $711	+5% $802	+10% $893
Rate	-1.0pp $792	-0.5pp $752	base $711	+0.5pp $670	+1.0pp $628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26340 Capay St Unit BACK LEFT Esparto, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	22d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,999 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,999 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,999 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,999 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,999 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,999 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,999 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,999 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,999 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,999 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,999 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $159,999 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $177,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $177,000 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $6,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,528
• After-tax cash flow: $7,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home in a senior community is in good condition with minor repairs needed. Painting and updating the kitchen and bathrooms would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen Countertops — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom Fixtures — Signs of wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting throughout — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Kitchen Countertop Replacement — New countertops improve functionality and appearance
• Resale Bathroom Fixtures Replacement — New fixtures enhance functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen Countertops · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom Fixtures · Signs of wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting throughout — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Kitchen Countertop Replacement — New countertops improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale Bathroom Fixtures Replacement — New fixtures enhance functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Esparto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,408
• Composite: 18.39/100
• National rank: #8939
• State rank: #454 of 517 in CA

Livability — Esparto

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #18205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Esparto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,935

Population outlook (Yolo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,183 people
• By 2030: 257,662 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 288,050 · +18.9%
• By 2050: 318,202 · +31.4%
• By 2075: 392,736 · +62.2%
• By 2100: 438,150 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yolo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.2) · D 66.3% · R 30.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: 0.0pp no change · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.2 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+33.2 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.20%
• Current HPI: 309.7677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B