29810 W Essex Ct · Chesterfield, MI 48051

$61,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 182 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SPRING into a New Home If we can get you approved for our 5% down program you could become a Homeowner for as little as $3095 Down payment. NEW HOME AVAILABLE IN CARRIAGE WAY This brand new 1056 square foot home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a layout designed for comfort and convenience. Step inside to a bright and inviting interior with a spacious feel throughout. The thoughtfully designed floor plan provides a natural flow between the main living areas, making everyday living simple and functional. The kitchen offers generous cabinet storage and plenty of workspace for meal preparation and organization. Whether preparing meals or enjoying a quiet morning, you will apprec

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Playgrounds
• Swimming pool

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• ENERGY EFFICIENT FEATURES
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUNDS
• CLOSE TO BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $61,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-section home (3 bed, 2 bath floor plan); Spec inventory

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, disposal, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• L'Anse Creuse Public Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #184 of 540 in MI (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $428 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $54,472 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.90%
• DSCR: 3.40
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $28,512
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52857 Bunker Hill Blvd Blvd	0.14mi	3/2.0	924 (-12%)	15mo	$25,000	$27	60
52259 Quaker Hill Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	956 (-10%)	13mo	$21,250	$22	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $39,579
• Equity at exit: $9,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $98,408
• Equity at exit: $5,352

Cash invested: $17,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48051

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $61,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $821	-5% $800	+0% $779	+5% $757	+10% $736
Rent	-10% $658	-5% $718	+0% $779	+5% $839	+10% $899
Rate	-1.0pp $810	-0.5pp $794	base $779	+0.5pp $763	+1.0pp $746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,475
• Closing costs: $1,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29810 W Essex Ct Unit 107 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,439	$1.36	5d	1	0.02mi
29778 W Essex Ct Unit 109 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,469	$1.39	44d	1	0.03mi
29811 W Essex Ct Unit 114 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,729	$1.19	44d	1	0.04mi
52780 S Zacharias Ct Unit 152 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,499	$1.42	0d	1	0.06mi
52792 S Zacharias Ct Unit 151 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	0d	1	0.06mi
52758 S Yorktown Ct Unit 176 New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	960	$1,449	$1.51	0d	1	0.07mi
29649 Cambridge Ct Unit 256 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,579	$1.37	0d	1	0.09mi
52871 N Zacharias Ct Unit 161 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,519	$1.32	0d	1	0.10mi
52436 Winston Ct Unit 209 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	44d	1	0.11mi
52962 N Yorktown Ct Unit 168 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,519	$1.44	0d	1	0.13mi
52705 Van Buren Dr Unit 297 Chesterfield, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,479	$1.40	0d	1	0.14mi
29909 Flushing Dr Unit 71 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,669	$1.16	17d	1	0.14mi
29805 Jamestown Dr Unit 435 New Baltimore, MI	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,739	$1.29	0d	1	0.27mi
29890 Donna Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	1.5	1120	$1,500	$1.34	0d	1	0.68mi
28346 Adler Park Dr S #246 Chesterfield, MI	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,750	$1.31	44d	1	0.84mi
28218 S Pointe Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1427	$1,850	$1.30	5d	1	0.90mi
28218 S Pointe Ln New Baltimore, MI	2.0	2.0	1425	$2,100	$1.47	25d	1	0.90mi
50450 Bay Run N #50 Chesterfield, MI	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	18d	1	1.10mi
28123 23 Mile Rd New Baltimore, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,059	$1.32	0d	5	1.15mi
50031 S Benny Ct New Baltimore, MI	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,450	$1.37	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $61,900 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $61,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $61,900 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $61,900 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $61,900 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $61,900 Active 176 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,467
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$1,801
• Taxable income: $8,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,133
• After-tax cash flow: $7,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: L'Anse Creuse Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,757
• Composite: 35.99/100
• National rank: #4790
• State rank: #184 of 540 in MI

Livability — Chesterfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,302
• Population (ZIP): 17,716

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.06%
• Current HPI: 210.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B