16657 E Gunsight Dr #194 · Fountain Hills, AZ 85268

$200,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Condo public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1986 $315/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in the heart of Fountain Hills! Featuring wood-look luxury vinyl flooring throughout, this light and bright home offers a neutral color palette and thoughtfully designed finishes with comfort and quality in mind. Quail Run is ideally situated just moments from the iconic Fountain Park, shopping, restaurants, entertainment, and year-round community events. Residents enjoy access to a heated pool, spa, clubhouse, and ramada, all surrounded by stunning mountain views and beautifully maintained grounds. Stackable washer and dryer included. Perfect as a full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or lock-and-leave opportunity.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Spa
• Ramada

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• SPA
• CLUBHOUSE
• RAMADA
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED GROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee; Association fee includes roof repair and replacement, exterior and grounds maintenance, and trash service; Community pool and heated community spa

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (1 space); Assigned and unassigned parking available
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Apartment (attached property); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Built-up and foam roof
• Exterior features: Partial wrought iron fencing; Desert front and back landscaping; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.4% in Fountain Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#45 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fountain Hills Unified District (4247) (other): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #61 of 249 in AZ (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mcdowell Mountain Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #243 of 1,109 statewide, top 23%, 297 students, 32% FRL); Fountain Hills Middle School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #54 of 218 statewide, top 25%, 390 students, 22% FRL); Fountain Hills High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 381 statewide, top 23%, 466 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,124
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,979
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85268

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$315
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,903

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $300	+0% $243	+5% $186	+10% $130
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $156	+0% $243	+5% $330	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $294	base $243	+0.5pp $191	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16807 E Gunsight Dr Unit B14 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$2,750	$4.77	44d	1	0.13mi
16819 E Gunsight Dr Unit A2 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$1,600	$2.78	25d	1	0.17mi
16819 E Gunsight Dr Unit A8 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$2,900	$5.03	44d	1	0.17mi
16545 E Gunsight Dr #212 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$1,400	$3.50	6d	1	0.19mi
16545 E Gunsight Dr #223 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	2.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	16d	1	0.21mi
16545 E Gunsight Dr #122 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	2.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	16d	1	0.21mi
17031 E El Lago Blvd #2106 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	649	$3,500	$5.39	25d	1	0.45mi
17031 E El Lago Blvd Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	649	$2,550	$3.93	25d	3	0.47mi
17031 E El Lago Blvd Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	649	$3,050	$4.70	21d	2	0.47mi
16550 E Avenue of the Fountains Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	721	$1,992	$2.76	0d	7	0.67mi
10401 N Saguaro Blvd #121 Fountain Hills, AZ	1.0	1.0	703	$2,600	$3.70	17d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $315 · $3,780/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $200,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $219,900 Active
17. 2016-02-26
    soldstatus $1,680,000
18. 2008-12-31
    historical
19. 2008-12-01
    listed $100,000
20. 2007-04-26
    historical
21. 2007-03-29
    listed $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $670 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$650/yr (+$54/mo · 96.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$670
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − HOA: −$3,780
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47
• After-tax cash flow: $2,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fountain Hills Unified District (4247)
• NCES district ID: 0403040
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $75,038
• Composite: 36.41/100
• National rank: #4677
• State rank: #61 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Fountain Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #8769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fountain Hills, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 23,849
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,849
• Household income: $112,795
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 374.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.81%
• Current HPI: 283.4064
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.03%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+30.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2016-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,680,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-12-01 Listed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2007-04-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-03-29 Listed $169,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $670 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.