131 Old Dwale School Rd · Dwale, KY 41621

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1965 1.50 ac lot Est $55k · 29% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

The home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath with large rooms. The home needs lots of work. Will not qualify for financing.

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 192 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Carpet and vinyl flooring; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#480 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Floyd County (rural): math 13% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #157 of 165 in KY (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Allen Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 484 students, 80% FRL); Prestonsburg High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 492 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Floyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($270 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Floyd County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.51%
• DSCR: 4.09
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $55,104
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Old School Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	19mo	$55,000	$41	75
17 N Cross Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (-11%)	6mo	$39,125	$33	50
37 Short	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,309 (-3%)	24mo	$130,000	$99	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $44,979
• Equity at exit: $17,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.49×
• Total profit: $103,658
• Equity at exit: $27,025

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41621

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $143/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $295

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $655	-5% $644	+0% $633	+5% $622	+10% $610
Rent	-10% $546	-5% $589	+0% $633	+5% $676	+10% $719
Rate	-1.0pp $652	-0.5pp $642	base $633	+0.5pp $622	+1.0pp $612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $39,000 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,000 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-04-22
    price $39,000
14. 2025-12-04
    listed $46,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $143 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 134.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$143
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $7,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,772
• After-tax cash flow: $5,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Floyd County
• NCES district ID: 2101950
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $29,638
• Composite: 17.97/100
• National rank: #8988
• State rank: #157 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dwale

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #24116

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dwale, KY
• City population: 153
• Population (ZIP): 153

Population outlook (Floyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,016 people
• By 2030: 30,683 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 25,378 · -23.1%
• By 2050: 21,013 · -36.4%
• By 2075: 14,361 · -56.5%
• By 2100: 10,464 · -68.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Asian 10%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Floyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.2) · D 19.6% · R 78.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -57.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -59.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.2 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+48.3 2012: R+33.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $39,000 EKAR
• 2025-12-04 Listed $46,000 EKAR

Property tax history

-10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $143 · -19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.