315 Begley Rd · Windham, NY 12496

$325,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1970 0.65 ac lot $282/sqft · 26% below area Est $437k · 26% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just minutes from the village of Windham, skiing, and golf, this meticulously maintained ranch is set on a beautiful country road in a true four-season community. The easy, flowing floor plan features a bright eat-in kitchen that opens directly to a spacious rear deck—perfect for outdoor dining and entertaining. Inside, you'll find three comfortable bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and a welcoming living room with a fireplace and a bar to warm up apres ski. The full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for future living space, a workshop, or recreation area. A two-car garage adds everyday convenience and storage. Whether you're seeking a full-time home or a weekend retreat, this Windham area ranch offers comfort, location, and opportunity in one inviting package. garage roof 4 years old

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Two-car garage
• Spacious rear deck

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS REAR DECK
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• TWO-CAR GARAGE
• TRUE FOUR-SEASON COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.4% in Windham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#964 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
• Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #517 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $286,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,934
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -25.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $102,076
• Equity at exit: $185,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $285,325
• Equity at exit: $320,689

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12496

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,251/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,566

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $325,000 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Just minutes from the village of Windham, skiing, and golf, this meticulously maintained ranch is set on a beautiful country road in a true four-season community. The easy, flowing floor plan features a bright eat-in kitchen that opens directly to a spacious rear deck—perfect for outdoor dining and entertaining. Inside, you'll find three comfortable bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and a welcoming living room with a fireplace and a bar to warm up apres ski. The full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for future living space, a workshop, or recreation area. A two-car garage adds everyday convenience and storage. Whether you're seeking a full-time home or a weekend retreat, this Windham area ranch offers comfort, location, and opportunity in one inviting package. garage roof 4 years old

16. 2026-01-16
    listed $349,000 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Just minutes from the village of Windham, skiing, and golf, this meticulously maintained ranch is set on a beautiful country road in a true four-season community. The easy, flowing floor plan features a bright eat-in kitchen that opens directly to a spacious rear deck—perfect for outdoor dining and entertaining. Inside, you'll find three comfortable bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and a welcoming living room with a fireplace and a bar to warm up apres ski. The full, unfinished basement offers excellent potential for future living space, a workshop, or recreation area. A two-car garage adds everyday convenience and storage. Whether you're seeking a full-time home or a weekend retreat, this Windham area ranch offers comfort, location, and opportunity in one inviting package. garage roof 4 years old

17. 2025-06-19
    listed $399,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,251 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,872 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,621/yr (+$135/mo · 72.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,251
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,964
• − Management: −$2,964
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$100
• After-tax cash flow: $5,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631590
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,942
• Composite: 42.57/100
• National rank: #6842
• State rank: #517 of 755 in NY

Livability — Windham

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #964
• US rank: #18888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windham, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,241

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Current HPI: 425.2138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $325,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $349,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $399,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,251 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.