14209 Bechler St · Pilot Point, TX 76258

$245,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $279k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $309,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, Sentosa plan; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1630

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction plan: Sentosa)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-49/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Pilot Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pilot Point El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 516 students, 56% FRL); Pilot Point Selz Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 59% FRL); Pilot Point H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 452 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $214,678 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,730
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14245 Bechler St	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,630 (0%)	2mo	$239,624	$147	95
14225 Bechler St	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+2%)	2mo	$284,999	$172	95
14241 Bechler St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+2%)	2mo	$241,774	$146	93
14131 Donahue St	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,605 (-2%)	2mo	$247,990	$155	82
14157 Gallatin St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-2%)	1mo	$319,000	$201	80
5933 Laurel Lake Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-2%)	2mo	$298,000	$188	78
14121 Lampard St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+2%)	1mo	$242,499	$146	68
7522 Bent Gale Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,581 (-3%)	1mo	$289,990	$183	57
7513 Fenton Pkwy	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-4%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	56
7526 Bent Gale Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,756 (+8%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	54
14109 Lampard St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-10%)	2mo	$228,000	$156	48
14125 Lampard St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-10%)	2mo	$220,999	$151	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,090
• Equity at exit: $36,679

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,114
• Equity at exit: $21,269

Cash invested: $68,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76258

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,690/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,152

Max offer price $245,408

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $81	+0% $-4	+5% $-89	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-89	+0% $-4	+5% $81	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $58	base $-4	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,500
• Closing costs: $7,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,195	$1.22	45d	1	0.10mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	14d	1	0.10mi
14220 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,099	$1.27	5d	1	0.11mi
14133 Calderwood St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,280	$1.30	45d	1	0.16mi
14114 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,200	$1.47	19d	1	0.18mi
14121 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	0.21mi
14122 Emeric St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,500	$1.11	26d	1	0.22mi
6905 Adderly Rd Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,845	$1.24	45d	1	0.38mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	9d	1	0.42mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	20d	1	0.42mi
7108 Calshot Rd Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	45d	1	0.43mi
14153 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,895	$1.25	19d	1	0.44mi
14184 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,400	$1.16	1d	1	0.49mi
14174 Inglebert St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	0.53mi
14085 Ladbroke St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,700	$1.11	26d	1	0.59mi
7803 Bent Gale Rd Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,975	$1.27	26d	1	0.81mi
6246 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2182	$2,695	$1.24	1d	1	1.31mi
6249 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,495	$1.15	13d	1	1.33mi
6124 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2183	$2,595	$1.19	5d	1	1.36mi
5928 Mustang Creek Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,395	$1.26	14d	1	1.38mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,700	$1.27	14d	1	1.39mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,650	$1.25	7d	1	1.39mi
6109 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,899	$1.34	4d	1	1.40mi
6113 Tahoe Winds Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2174	$2,800	$1.29	26d	1	1.45mi
3304 Lake Palestine Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2179	$2,650	$1.22	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $245,999 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   remarks 377-char remark
3. 2026-06-21
   listed $309,999 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,780
• − Property taxes: −$3,690
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − Depreciation: −$7,156
• Taxable loss: −$4,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,012
• After-tax cash flow: $963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pilot Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834920
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,332
• Composite: 36.85/100
• National rank: #4555
• State rank: #303 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilot Point, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,042

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.12%
• Current HPI: 303.4015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B