19 Shadow Ln · Natchez, MS 39120

$129,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1960 0.30 ac lot $104/sqft · 29% above area Est $133k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FAMILY HOME IN THE HEART OF IT ALL! 3 OR 4 Bed /2 Bath Home. Lots of Living Space to accommodate a Large Family. Front Door leads to Formal Living & Dining Room Combo that has New Carpet. Kitchen has Breakfast Bar & Bonus Space for a Cozy Family Room. Primary Bedroom has Private Bath. Two Guest Rooms have New Carpet and Shared Hall Bath. Garage was Converted into a Den but could easily be a 4th Bedroom. The Den has its own Entry Door from the Driveway. Just off the Kitchen is Laundry Room with a Door to Fenced Backyard & Patio. Backyard has Two Storage Buildings. One is perfect for your Workshop. This house offers a lot of Bang for the Buck when it comes to Living Space.

Key facts

• Dining combo
• Laundry room
• Bonus space

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FORMAL LIVING
• DINING COMBO
• BREAKFAST BAR
• BONUS SPACE
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $897 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,224 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.26%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,907
• List price: $129,800
• Delta: -2.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1304 Westwood Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+10%)	3mo	$149,000	$109	72
31 Maplewood Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+0%)	22mo	$139,500	$112	68
26 Maplewood Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+9%)	15mo	$99,500	$73	60
8 Oakwood Ln	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (-14%)	13mo	$99,000	$92	56
3703 Sherwood Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	13mo	$106,000	$96	55
308 John Glenn Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-0%)	16mo	$149,900	$121	54
1506 Eastwood Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+12%)	11mo	$134,500	$96	50
8 Turtle Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	18mo	$179,000	$136	50
1306 Eastwood Rd	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,061 (-15%)	12mo	$90,000	$85	45
302 Holly Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-12%)	24mo	$118,500	$108	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,919
• Equity at exit: $19,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,927
• Equity at exit: $11,223

Cash invested: $36,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,201/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $129,800

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,450
• Closing costs: $3,894
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   FAMILY HOME IN THE HEART OF IT ALL! 3 OR 4 Bed /2 Bath Home. Lots of Living Space to accommodate a Large Family. Front Door leads to Formal Living & Dining Room Combo that has New Carpet. Kitchen has Breakfast Bar & Bonus Space for a Cozy Family Room. Primary Bedroom has Private Bath. Two Guest Rooms have New Carpet and Shared Hall Bath. Garage was Converted into a Den but could easily be a 4th Bedroom. The Den has its own Entry Door from the Driveway. Just off the Kitchen is Laundry Room with a Door to Fenced Backyard & Patio. Backyard has Two Storage Buildings. One is perfect for your Workshop. This house offers a lot of Bang for the Buck when it comes to Living Space.

2. 2026-01-29
   price $129,800 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   FAMILY HOME IN THE HEART OF IT ALL! 3 OR 4 Bed /2 Bath Home. Lots of Living Space to accommodate a Large Family. Front Door leads to Formal Living & Dining Room Combo that has New Carpet. Kitchen has Breakfast Bar & Bonus Space for a Cozy Family Room. Primary Bedroom has Private Bath. Two Guest Rooms have New Carpet and Shared Hall Bath. Garage was Converted into a Den but could easily be a 4th Bedroom. The Den has its own Entry Door from the Driveway. Just off the Kitchen is Laundry Room with a Door to Fenced Backyard & Patio. Backyard has Two Storage Buildings. One is perfect for your Workshop. This house offers a lot of Bang for the Buck when it comes to Living Space.

3. 2025-11-18
   price $134,000 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   FAMILY HOME IN THE HEART OF IT ALL! 3 OR 4 Bed /2 Bath Home. Lots of Living Space to accommodate a Large Family. Front Door leads to Formal Living & Dining Room Combo that has New Carpet. Kitchen has Breakfast Bar & Bonus Space for a Cozy Family Room. Primary Bedroom has Private Bath. Two Guest Rooms have New Carpet and Shared Hall Bath. Garage was Converted into a Den but could easily be a 4th Bedroom. The Den has its own Entry Door from the Driveway. Just off the Kitchen is Laundry Room with a Door to Fenced Backyard & Patio. Backyard has Two Storage Buildings. One is perfect for your Workshop. This house offers a lot of Bang for the Buck when it comes to Living Space.

4. 2025-10-07
   listed $139,000 Active 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   FAMILY HOME IN THE HEART OF IT ALL! 3 OR 4 Bed /2 Bath Home. Lots of Living Space to accommodate a Large Family. Front Door leads to Formal Living & Dining Room Combo that has New Carpet. Kitchen has Breakfast Bar & Bonus Space for a Cozy Family Room. Primary Bedroom has Private Bath. Two Guest Rooms have New Carpet and Shared Hall Bath. Garage was Converted into a Den but could easily be a 4th Bedroom. The Den has its own Entry Door from the Driveway. Just off the Kitchen is Laundry Room with a Door to Fenced Backyard & Patio. Backyard has Two Storage Buildings. One is perfect for your Workshop. This house offers a lot of Bang for the Buck when it comes to Living Space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,271
• − Property taxes: −$2,201
• − Insurance: −$649
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,346
• − Management: −$1,346
• − Depreciation: −$3,776
• Taxable income: $239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $129,800 MLSU
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $134,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-07 Listed $139,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,201 · +24.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.