435 Maple Ln · Greenport West, NY 11944

$1,995,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,500 sqft · Land · 226 Days on market

Built 2025 1.19 ac lot $443/sqft · 238% above area $38/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this brand-new coastal retreat that epitomizes North Fork luxury. This exquisite property offers 4,500 square feet of meticulously designed living space across three levels, including a full walkout basement. This home seamlessly blends upscale entertaining with relaxed everyday living. Stroll outside to your private oasis, where a 20 x 40 heated, saltwater inground pool is the focal point, surrounded by an expansive patio, cozy fire pit, and lush landscaping. The 500 square-foot pool house enhances the outdoor experience with a wet bar, half bath, covered patio, and outdoor shower-ideal for rinsing off after enjoying your deeded Peconic Bay beach rights, located just moments away. Inside, high ceilings and open living spaces create a warm and inviting atmosphere. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream, while the 5 spa-inspired bathrooms and 4 generous bedrooms offer comfort and style. The walkout lower level provides versatile space, perfect for a home theater, gym, or guest suite. An attached two-car garage offers convenience and ample storage for beach or golf gear. Situated in the coveted Cleaves Point Community, this property is just one minute from the beautiful Islands End Golf Course and three minutes from historic Greenport Village. This location combines coastal serenity with village convenience, making it an ideal full-time residence or luxurious weekend escape. This rare North Fork find is now available for sale, offering a unique opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of New York's most sought-after locations. Could be You!

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Cozy fire pit
• Pool house

Tags

• INGROUND POOL
• EXPANSIVE PATIO
• COZY FIRE PIT
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• POOL HOUSE
• WET BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($51k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $2.00M).
• Recommended offer: $1.76M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,073 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenport Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #450 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $255k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $649k; list at $2.00M implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,755,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.12%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $590,625
• List price: $1,995,000
• Delta: 237.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-52,577
• Equity at exit: $297,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $303,808
• Equity at exit: $172,491

Cash invested: $558,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11944

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,494 /mo · $29,925/yr
• Insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,803
• Net cashflow: $4,244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,500

Max offer price $1,995,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,623	-5% $4,934	+0% $4,244	+5% $3,555	+10% $2,866
Rent	-10% $2,437	-5% $3,341	+0% $4,244	+5% $5,148	+10% $6,051
Rate	-1.0pp $5,249	-0.5pp $4,752	base $4,244	+0.5pp $3,727	+1.0pp $3,202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $498,750
• Closing costs: $59,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
165 Marine Pl Greenport, NY	4.0	4.5	3800	$20,000	$5.26	45d	1	0.27mi
525 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	3.0	3964	$6,000	$1.51	45d	1	0.57mi
1745 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	3.5	4000	$10,000	$2.50	45d	1	1.07mi
950 Tasker Ln Greenport, NY	4.0	3.5	3500	$36,000	$10.29	45d	1	1.15mi
1000 Sound Dr Greenport, NY	5.0	4.5	3700	$45,000	$12.16	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-06
   price $1,995,000 1579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1579 chars)

   Welcome to this brand-new coastal retreat that epitomizes North Fork luxury. This exquisite property offers 4,500 square feet of meticulously designed living space across three levels, including a full walkout basement. This home seamlessly blends upscale entertaining with relaxed everyday living. Stroll outside to your private oasis, where a 20 x 40 heated, saltwater inground pool is the focal point, surrounded by an expansive patio, cozy fire pit, and lush landscaping. The 500 square-foot pool house enhances the outdoor experience with a wet bar, half bath, covered patio, and outdoor shower-ideal for rinsing off after enjoying your deeded Peconic Bay beach rights, located just moments away. Inside, high ceilings and open living spaces create a warm and inviting atmosphere. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream, while the 5 spa-inspired bathrooms and 4 generous bedrooms offer comfort and style. The walkout lower level provides versatile space, perfect for a home theater, gym, or guest suite. An attached two-car garage offers convenience and ample storage for beach or golf gear. Situated in the coveted Cleaves Point Community, this property is just one minute from the beautiful Islands End Golf Course and three minutes from historic Greenport Village. This location combines coastal serenity with village convenience, making it an ideal full-time residence or luxurious weekend escape. This rare North Fork find is now available for sale, offering a unique opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of New York's most sought-after locations. Could be You!

2. 2026-03-06
   price $2,050,000 1579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1579 chars)

   Welcome to this brand-new coastal retreat that epitomizes North Fork luxury. This exquisite property offers 4,500 square feet of meticulously designed living space across three levels, including a full walkout basement. This home seamlessly blends upscale entertaining with relaxed everyday living. Stroll outside to your private oasis, where a 20 x 40 heated, saltwater inground pool is the focal point, surrounded by an expansive patio, cozy fire pit, and lush landscaping. The 500 square-foot pool house enhances the outdoor experience with a wet bar, half bath, covered patio, and outdoor shower-ideal for rinsing off after enjoying your deeded Peconic Bay beach rights, located just moments away. Inside, high ceilings and open living spaces create a warm and inviting atmosphere. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream, while the 5 spa-inspired bathrooms and 4 generous bedrooms offer comfort and style. The walkout lower level provides versatile space, perfect for a home theater, gym, or guest suite. An attached two-car garage offers convenience and ample storage for beach or golf gear. Situated in the coveted Cleaves Point Community, this property is just one minute from the beautiful Islands End Golf Course and three minutes from historic Greenport Village. This location combines coastal serenity with village convenience, making it an ideal full-time residence or luxurious weekend escape. This rare North Fork find is now available for sale, offering a unique opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of New York's most sought-after locations. Could be You!

3. 2025-10-07
   listed $2,250,000 Active 1579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1579 chars)

   Welcome to this brand-new coastal retreat that epitomizes North Fork luxury. This exquisite property offers 4,500 square feet of meticulously designed living space across three levels, including a full walkout basement. This home seamlessly blends upscale entertaining with relaxed everyday living. Stroll outside to your private oasis, where a 20 x 40 heated, saltwater inground pool is the focal point, surrounded by an expansive patio, cozy fire pit, and lush landscaping. The 500 square-foot pool house enhances the outdoor experience with a wet bar, half bath, covered patio, and outdoor shower-ideal for rinsing off after enjoying your deeded Peconic Bay beach rights, located just moments away. Inside, high ceilings and open living spaces create a warm and inviting atmosphere. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream, while the 5 spa-inspired bathrooms and 4 generous bedrooms offer comfort and style. The walkout lower level provides versatile space, perfect for a home theater, gym, or guest suite. An attached two-car garage offers convenience and ample storage for beach or golf gear. Situated in the coveted Cleaves Point Community, this property is just one minute from the beautiful Islands End Golf Course and three minutes from historic Greenport Village. This location combines coastal serenity with village convenience, making it an ideal full-time residence or luxurious weekend escape. This rare North Fork find is now available for sale, offering a unique opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of New York's most sought-after locations. Could be You!

4. 2025-09-19
   historical
5. 2025-08-14
   price $2,350,000
6. 2025-06-05
   listed $2,425,000 Active
7. 2024-03-13
   soldstatus $649,000
8. 2024-01-19
   soldstatus $649,000 Closed
9. 2023-10-23
   status Pending
10. 2023-10-04
    listed $649,000 Active
11. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus $579,000
12. 2021-12-17
    soldstatus $579,000 Closed
13. 2021-08-19
    status Pending
14. 2021-07-19
    listed $479,000 Active
15. 2007-01-10
    soldstatus $300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $274,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,751
• − Property taxes: −$29,925
• − Insurance: −$9,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,958
• − Management: −$21,958
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$58,036
• Taxable income: $20,413
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,899
• After-tax cash flow: $46,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenport Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3612840
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $54,490
• Composite: 45.25/100
• National rank: #5759
• State rank: #450 of 755 in NY

Livability — Greenport West

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1073
• US rank: #21520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenport West, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,744

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.97%
• Current HPI: 462.3431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+565.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $2,050,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listed $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $2,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Listed $2,425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $649,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-19 Sold (MLS) $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $579,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-17 Sold (MLS) $579,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-19 Listed $479,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,610 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.