611 Mill St · Watertown, NY 13601

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,695 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1925 4,606 sqft lot $88/sqft · 23% below area Est $194k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of historic charm and modern convenience in this delightful 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home. This 1,695 sq. ft. residence, built in 1925, welcomes you with a beautiful wooden staircase and features classic hardwood floors. The spacious layout includes a comfortable living room, a large eat-in kitchen, and the peace of mind that comes with a brand-new furnace. Ideally situated just 15 minutes from Fort Drum and less than 10 minutes from local restaurants and shopping, this property offers an unbeatable combination of character, comfort, and prime location. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity—schedule your showing today

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Wooden staircase
• Brand-new furnace

Tags

• WOODEN STAIRCASE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BRAND-NEW FURNACE
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $150k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,751
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -22.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
626 Mill St	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+1%)	0mo	$75,000	$44	89
211 W Lynde St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-8%)	1mo	$190,000	$122	78
208 Farwell St	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,610 (-5%)	1mo	$162,900	$101	75
646 Cooper St	0.11mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,519 (-10%)	2mo	$195,000	$128	69
662 Burchard St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,668 (-2%)	2mo	$140,000	$84	67
244 N Rutland St	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,693 (-0%)	1mo	$233,200	$138	59
148 E Division St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-6%)	4mo	$130,000	$82	59
519 Pearl St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+5%)	3mo	$176,000	$99	58
241 W Main St	0.20mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,949 (+15%)	3mo	$126,000	$65	56
523 Emerson St	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,498 (-12%)	0mo	$47,100	$31	50
750 Bradley St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,446 (-15%)	1mo	$173,500	$120	38
833 W Main St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,865 (+10%)	6mo	$198,000	$106	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,927
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $50,588
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,390/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	43d	1	0.11mi
377 W Main St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1991	$1,350	$0.68	43d	1	0.34mi
836 Leray St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1782	$1,200	$0.67	43d	1	0.49mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	43d	1	0.61mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	43d	1	0.68mi
621 Academy St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,600	$0.97	43d	1	0.76mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	43d	1	0.82mi
1029 Gill St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	43d	1	0.85mi
720 Cadwell St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$995	$0.77	43d	1	1.00mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,440	$1.00	43d	9	1.13mi
173 Ely St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1940	$1,150	$0.59	43d	1	1.30mi
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,500	$1.04	43d	9	1.49mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $149,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    price $159,900 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of historic charm and modern convenience in this delightful 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home. This 1,695 sq. ft. residence, built in 1925, welcomes you with a beautiful wooden staircase and features classic hardwood floors. The spacious layout includes a comfortable living room, a large eat-in kitchen, and the peace of mind that comes with a brand-new furnace. Ideally situated just 15 minutes from Fort Drum and less than 10 minutes from local restaurants and shopping, this property offers an unbeatable combination of character, comfort, and prime location. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity—schedule your showing today

19. 2026-03-30
    listed $165,000 Active 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of historic charm and modern convenience in this delightful 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home. This 1,695 sq. ft. residence, built in 1925, welcomes you with a beautiful wooden staircase and features classic hardwood floors. The spacious layout includes a comfortable living room, a large eat-in kitchen, and the peace of mind that comes with a brand-new furnace. Ideally situated just 15 minutes from Fort Drum and less than 10 minutes from local restaurants and shopping, this property offers an unbeatable combination of character, comfort, and prime location. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity—schedule your showing today

20. 2022-05-19
    soldstatus $75,000
21. 2021-12-31
    historical
22. 2021-11-05
    price $119,000
23. 2021-08-02
    price $139,500
24. 2021-06-30
    listed $149,500 Active
25. 2021-02-23
    soldstatus $50,000
26. 2021-02-19
    soldstatus $50,000
27. 2020-03-09
    listed $59,900
28. 2002-01-30
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,390 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,961 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$572/yr (+$48/mo · 41.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,390
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28
• After-tax cash flow: $2,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+240.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $165,000 CNYIS
• 2022-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-11-05 Price Changed $119,000 CNYIS
• 2021-08-02 Price Changed $139,500 CNYIS
• 2021-06-30 Listed $149,500 CNYIS
• 2021-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-19 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CNYIS
• 2020-03-09 Listed $59,900 CNYIS
• 2002-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,390 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.