5 Fir Dr · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2007 10,019 sqft lot Est $253k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 1,428 living square foot home, built in 2007 and featuring a two car 420 square foot garage, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, interior laundry with garage access, kitchen, living room and dining area all close to schools, parks, shopping and major roads.

Key facts

• New appliances
• New roof
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• NEW ROOF
• NEW ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R1; Homestead exempt
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 125 (0.23 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom layout; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in laundry room; Laundry room inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Greenway Elementary School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 736 students, 67% FRL); Fort King Middle School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #410 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,092 students, 71% FRL); Forest High School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,325 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,402 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,756
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Fir Drive Trce	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+2%)	9mo	$260,000	$179	81
14 Redwood Track Pass	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+2%)	3mo	$275,000	$189	80
11 Fir Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+6%)	6mo	$242,000	$160	78
16 Pecan Run Crse	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,441 (+1%)	10mo	$263,000	$183	70
8 Pecan Run Ter	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+2%)	5mo	$264,900	$182	69
52 Pecan Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+2%)	8mo	$255,000	$175	67
2 Pecan Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	6mo	$270,000	$188	66
60 Fir Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+13%)	6mo	$280,000	$174	55
4 Redwood Trace Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+12%)	2mo	$255,000	$160	54
6 Pecan Run Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	6mo	$220,000	$167	54
5524 Pecan Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-7%)	10mo	$235,000	$177	50
81 Pecan Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (-10%)	1mo	$215,000	$168	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $51,161
• Equity at exit: $155,471

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $153,168
• Equity at exit: $281,029

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,053/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $208,217

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-160	+0% $-231	+5% $-301	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-303	+0% $-231	+5% $-159	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-168	base $-231	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Redwood Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,695	$1.18	23d	1	0.25mi
106 Redwood Track Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,675	$1.19	15d	1	0.40mi
96 Redwood Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	15d	1	0.49mi
36 Pecan Run Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,850	$1.56	15d	1	0.56mi
19 Pecan Pass Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,750	$1.28	23d	1	0.69mi
13 Redwood Trace Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	23d	1	0.72mi
5614 Pecan Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	23d	1	0.75mi
136 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,990	$1.09	15d	1	0.85mi
149 Hickory Course Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,100	$1.15	15d	1	0.98mi
492 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,750	$1.18	23d	1	1.09mi
6875 SE 52nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,750	$1.08	23d	1	1.19mi
7044 Hemlock Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	15d	1	1.24mi
308 Hickory Course Radl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,650	$1.18	23d	1	1.30mi
9 Teak Way Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	15d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,053 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,053 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,053
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$7,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,729
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2577.4% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-24 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-10 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $98,357 Public Records
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-03 Listed $105,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-20 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-20 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-22 Listed $47,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-13 Listed $66,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-04 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $142,500 Public Records
• 2008-10-09 Sold (MLS) $142,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-28 Listed $137,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-12 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-06 Sold (MLS) $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-27 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-03 Sold (MLS) $96,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-16 Listed $96,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-01 Sold (MLS) $9,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-25 Listed $9,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,053 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.