Siesta Plan · Lehigh Acres, FL 33976

$312,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily · 849 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 849 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $312,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Siesta); New construction inventory: Plan
• Exterior features: Address: 4502 Lee Blvd, Lehigh Acres, FL 33976

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 1864; Plan: Siesta

🏗️ New construction. The $312,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $359,752.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-709 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 788 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 849 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,962 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 849 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.45%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,752
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4515 W 7th St St W	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (-10%)	0mo	$298,900	$178	70
52 Floyd Ave S	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,715 (-8%)	7mo	$374,900	$219	63
703 James Ave N	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-2%)	18mo	$353,640	$193	56
4914 7th St W	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,892 (+2%)	3mo	$260,000	$137	55
806 Champion Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,747 (-6%)	9mo	$380,000	$218	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $144,217
• Equity at exit: $324,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $448,468
• Equity at exit: $698,919

Cash invested: $100,731 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33976

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 788
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,396/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,147

Max offer price $257,164

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-460	-5% $-585	+0% $-709	+5% $-833	+10% $-958
Rent	-10% $-887	-5% $-798	+0% $-709	+5% $-620	+10% $-531
Rate	-1.0pp $-528	-0.5pp $-617	base $-709	+0.5pp $-802	+1.0pp $-897

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,938
• Closing costs: $10,793
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Hightower Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2376	$1,800	$0.76	22d	1	0.36mi
703 Felix Ave N Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,600	$2.04	25d	1	0.39mi
4715 4th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,695	$1.17	25d	1	0.39mi
124 Gilbert Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,810	$1.18	25d	1	0.42mi
121 Homer Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2438	$1,800	$0.74	25d	1	0.43mi
4807 5th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1362	$1,755	$1.29	25d	1	0.54mi
4320 12th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,650	$1.03	15d	1	0.56mi
4320 12th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,650	$1.03	16d	1	0.56mi
4307 2nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,191	$1.19	4d	1	0.60mi
1502 Scholar Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$2,400	$1.39	25d	1	0.63mi
4911 7th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,800	$1.27	4d	1	0.68mi
4707 Brixton Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	2199	$2,499	$1.14	4d	1	0.75mi
610 Floyd Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	25d	1	0.82mi
721 Ivan Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,800	$0.90	22d	1	0.90mi
721 Ivan Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,850	$0.93	25d	1	0.90mi
723 Ivan Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,800	$0.90	22d	1	0.91mi
723 Ivan Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,850	$0.93	25d	1	0.91mi
4218 8th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,800	$1.28	25d	1	0.92mi
4003 3rd St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,985	$1.51	25d	1	0.93mi
3914 9th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,999	$1.59	4d	1	0.95mi
4903 Beauty St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1777	$1,970	$1.11	4d	1	0.96mi
5003 Barth St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,816	$1.17	4d	1	0.96mi
3919 3rd St W Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,131	$1.23	4d	1	0.97mi
4910 Bywood St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,750	$1.48	25d	1	0.98mi
3906 6th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,000	$1.37	25d	1	0.99mi
1024 Chauncey Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1715	$2,300	$1.34	21d	1	1.00mi
4914 Bywood St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$2,250	$1.63	12d	1	1.00mi
3837 17th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1871	$2,450	$1.31	25d	1	1.02mi
5215 Butte St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,400	$1.31	25d	1	1.03mi
1110 Hightower Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,325	$1.08	25d	1	1.03mi
3906 11th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,835	$1.29	15d	1	1.05mi
4008 15th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,625	$1.23	16d	1	1.05mi
3908 Sunset Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1815	$2,450	$1.35	25d	1	1.07mi
5210 2nd St W Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,740	$1.08	25d	1	1.08mi
2052 Oxford Ridge Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,400	$1.38	25d	1	1.08mi
5032 Bristo St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	25d	1	1.10mi
826 Adeline Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,920	$1.24	25d	1	1.10mi
3820 3rd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	2133	$1,745	$0.82	25d	1	1.13mi
3904 20th St W Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$3,200	$1.74	20d	1	1.17mi
2280 Somerset Ridge Dr #204 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,650	$1.25	25d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $312,990 Active 849 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,990 Active 845 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,990 Active 844 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,990 Active 843 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,990 Active 841 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,990 Active 837 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $312,990 Active 835 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $342,790 Active 829 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $342,790 Active 828 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,152
• − Property taxes: −$5,396
• − Insurance: −$1,799
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$10,466
• Taxable loss: −$15,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,633
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,277
• Household income: $72,679
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 18% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.77%
• Current HPI: 340.4255
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B