315 Wheeler Ln · Jamestown, TN 38556

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2002 2.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated and remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath modular that looks like a stick built home with carport and extra storage shed. New flooring, new electrical and lights in the kitchen and totally painted in 2025. Bath remodeled. Laundry room with washer/ dryer hookup. Large yard partially fenced. Will be resurveyed to have 1.7 acres approximately.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Extra storage shed
• New flooring

Tags

• CARPORT
• EXTRA STORAGE SHED
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• REMODELED BATH
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#250 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fentress County (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #91 of 139 in TN (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Fentress Elementary School (math 19% / reading 25%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 632 students, 0% FRL); Clarkrange High School (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #73 of 332 statewide, top 22%, 260 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fentress County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $200k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,972 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $428,220
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
384 Wheeler Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	17mo	$395,000	$305	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $98,893
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $299,179
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38556

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $177,155

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-89	+0% $-158	+5% $-227	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-219	+0% $-158	+5% $-97	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-107	base $-158	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Updated and remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath modular that looks like a stick built home with carport and extra storage shed. New flooring, new electrical and lights in the kitchen and totally painted in 2025. Bath remodeled. Laundry room with washer/ dryer hookup. Large yard partially fenced. Will be resurveyed to have 1.7 acres approximately.

2. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Updated and remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath modular that looks like a stick built home with carport and extra storage shed. New flooring, new electrical and lights in the kitchen and totally painted in 2025. Bath remodeled. Laundry room with washer/ dryer hookup. Large yard partially fenced. Will be resurveyed to have 1.7 acres approximately.

3. 2026-01-13
   listed $200,000 Active 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Updated and remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath modular that looks like a stick built home with carport and extra storage shed. New flooring, new electrical and lights in the kitchen and totally painted in 2025. Bath remodeled. Laundry room with washer/ dryer hookup. Large yard partially fenced. Will be resurveyed to have 1.7 acres approximately.

4. 2026-01-10
   listed $200,000 Active 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Updated and remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bath modular that looks like a stick built home with carport and extra storage shed. New flooring, new electrical and lights in the kitchen and totally painted in 2025. Bath remodeled. Laundry room with washer/ dryer hookup. Large yard partially fenced. Will be resurveyed to have 1.7 acres approximately.

5. 2024-07-15
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed
6. 2024-07-15
   soldstatus $125,000
7. 2024-05-23
   status Pending
8. 2024-05-21
   listed $125,000 Active
9. 2007-04-23
   listed $85,000
10. 2006-10-23
    listed $79,000
11. 2006-08-14
    soldstatus $75,000
12. 2006-08-11
    soldstatus $75,000
13. 2006-06-08
    listed $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,400
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,296
• After-tax cash flow: $-598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fentress County
• NCES district ID: 4701230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $30,419
• Composite: 20.6/100
• National rank: #8552
• State rank: #91 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #17976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,531

Population outlook (Fentress County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,295 people
• By 2030: 16,749 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 15,443 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 14,077 · -18.6%
• By 2075: 11,482 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 9,658 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fentress

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.8% · R 87.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.9pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+71.3 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+53.4 2008: R+43.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.31%
• Current HPI: 372.5676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+153.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $200,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listed $200,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-15 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-05-23 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $125,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2007-04-23 Listed $85,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2006-10-23 Listed $79,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2006-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-11 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2006-06-08 Listed $79,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

-3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $248 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.