251 Brockway Rd · Utica, NY 13340

$249,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,549 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1961 0.53 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in ready country ranch home on nearly an acre (2 lots front to back) Originally a 3 bedroom with one currently converted to a laundry room, washer & dryer connections in basement make it easy to convert back to 3 bedroom. Large primary rooms, eat in kitchen opens to the dining area. A keep you cozy pellet stove in the living room a year around addition providing extra privacy off the media room. This home has had lots of love and it shows in every room! Basement is approximately 3/4 of the home and includes a root cellar and a newer chest freezer. Extra wide 2 car garage with attic storage and a back-up refrigerator. Metal roofing on the home and out buildings Bonus for the ho

Key facts

• Country ranch home
• Chest freezer
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• COUNTRY RANCH HOME
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• PELLET STOVE
• MEDIA ROOM
• ROOT CELLAR
• CHEST FREEZER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage with electric and garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing structure
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Blown-in insulation; Partial basement with sump pump
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Private yard; Barn(s), outbuilding, shed(s) and storage; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Eat-in / country-style kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Accessible bedroom with no stairs
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with baseboard; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Den; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country-style kitchen; Main-level primary suite; Convertible bedroom; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 7.8% in Utica — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Frankfort-Schuyler Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #538 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frankfort-Schuyler Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 349 students, 48% FRL); Frankfort-Schuyler Middle School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 210 students, 49% FRL); Frankfort-Schuyler Central High School (math 92%, 258 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,177 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $119,539
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $365,259
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13340

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,662/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,282

Max offer price $203,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-191	+0% $-261	+5% $-332	+10% $-403
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-338	+0% $-261	+5% $-184	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-135	-0.5pp $-198	base $-261	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,662 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,662 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,662
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frankfort-Schuyler Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611400
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,499
• Composite: 32.87/100
• National rank: #5610
• State rank: #538 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 72,968
• Population (ZIP): 7,322

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.15%
• Current HPI: 336.077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $249,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,662 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.