12780 Navajo Dr · Indian Hills, TX 78570

$135,000

None bd · None ba · 1,300 sqft · Other public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1977 3,203 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity with this affordable duplex located in Mercedes, TX. The property features two units, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, along with a kitchen, living area, and dining space designed for comfortable everyday living. Each unit includes two dedicated parking spaces, providing added convenience for tenants. The functional layout and desirable features make this property ideal for long-term rentals. A solid income-producing property with strong rental potential in a growing area. Don’t miss this opportunity to expand your real estate portfolio.

Key facts

• 3,203 sq ft lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 144 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a other listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,309 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mercedes ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #811 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 392 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $37,859
• Equity at exit: $72,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $107,255
• Equity at exit: $122,291

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,195/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $201	+0% $163	+5% $125	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $112	+0% $163	+5% $215	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $198	base $163	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3782 Mile 12 N Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	44d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-01-27
    listed $135,000 Active 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity with this affordable duplex located in Mercedes, TX. The property features two units, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, along with a kitchen, living area, and dining space designed for comfortable everyday living. Each unit includes two dedicated parking spaces, providing added convenience for tenants. The functional layout and desirable features make this property ideal for long-term rentals. A solid income-producing property with strong rental potential in a growing area. Don’t miss this opportunity to expand your real estate portfolio.

18. 2018-09-12
    soldstatus
19. 2010-03-11
    soldstatus
20. 1997-04-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,275/yr (+$106/mo · 106.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,195
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61
• After-tax cash flow: $2,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercedes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830250
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,606
• Composite: 12.84/100
• National rank: #9596
• State rank: #811 of 826 in TX

Livability — Indian Hills

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1309
• US rank: #22652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian Hills, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2018-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,195 · -21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.