Plan 2372 Modeled Plan · Fresno, TX 77545

$311,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 709 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Kitchen island
• Gas range

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• UPSTAIRS PRIMARY SUITE
• GAS RANGE
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $311,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,625.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 102d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 709 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,467 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 709 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,625
• List price: $311,995
• Delta: -7.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2019 Damasi Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,615 (+10%)	3mo	$319,000	$122	69
1523 Grand Olympia Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,130 (-10%)	6mo	$336,259	$158	63
1526 Grand Olympia Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,596 (+9%)	7mo	$369,995	$143	62
2702 Modano Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,392 (+1%)	1mo	$299,000	$125	60
2611 Cottage Step Trl Trl	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,392 (+1%)	4mo	$295,000	$123	57
2643 Dry Creek Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,133 (-10%)	4mo	$300,000	$141	57
2703 Coyote Trail Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,311 (-3%)	4mo	$322,900	$140	56
2827 Dry Creek Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,054 (-13%)	2mo	$315,000	$153	54
2543 Tucker Creek Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,323 (-2%)	4mo	$300,000	$129	52
3202 Thebes Ct	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,149 (-9%)	2mo	$315,000	$147	49
2631 Sunlit Meadow Trl	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,656 (+12%)	3mo	$329,995	$124	42
3319 Ithaca Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,149 (-9%)	7mo	$299,786	$140	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-65,558
• Equity at exit: $65,483

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-96,541
• Equity at exit: $56,246

Cash invested: $93,975 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $330,000 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,034/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,936

Max offer price $294,323

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-169	+0% $-285	+5% $-401	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-387	+0% $-285	+5% $-184	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-200	base $-285	+0.5pp $-372	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,906
• Closing costs: $10,069
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	101d	1	0.45mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	117d	1	0.49mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	116d	1	0.50mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	98d	1	0.52mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	117d	1	0.52mi
2235 Argos Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2838	$2,550	$0.90	117d	1	0.69mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	139d	1	0.79mi
1407 Wheatland Terrance Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	0.96mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	37d	1	1.01mi
2119 Hawthorne Brook Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	48d	1	1.11mi
3610 Cresswell Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3184	$2,420	$0.76	5d	1	1.13mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2847	$2,800	$0.98	117d	1	1.17mi
2026 Acorn Glen Trl Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	2294	$2,280	$0.99	29d	1	1.19mi
2202 Tannin Trce Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	2209	$2,231	$1.01	34d	1	1.22mi
3234 Dartmouth Field Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1718	$1,700	$0.99	24d	1	1.30mi
3122 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,711	$1.07	75d	1	1.31mi
3327 Jib Ct Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,040	$1.15	35d	1	1.34mi
3935 Medici Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2636	$2,800	$1.06	117d	1	1.35mi
3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2409	$3,500	$1.45	139d	1	1.37mi
1714 Mustang Xing Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3065	$2,436	$0.79	139d	1	1.42mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	139d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $311,995 Active 709 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $311,995 Active 708 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $311,995 Active 707 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $311,995 Active 706 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $311,995 Active 705 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $311,995 Active 704 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $311,995 Active 703 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $311,995 Active 702 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $311,995 Active 701 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $311,995 Active 700 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $311,995 Active 699 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $311,995 Active 698 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $311,995 Active 697 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $311,995 Active 696 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $311,995 Active 690 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $311,995 Active 689 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $311,995 Active 685 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $311,995 Active 684 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $311,995 Active 683 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $311,995 Active 682 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $311,995 Active 681 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $311,995 Active 679 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $311,995 Active 678 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $311,995 Active 677 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $311,995 Active 676 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $311,995 Active 675 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $311,995 Active 674 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $311,995 Active 673 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $311,995 Active 672 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $311,995 Active 671 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $311,995 Active 670 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $311,995 Active 669 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $311,995 Active 668 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $311,995 Active 667 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $321,995 Active 666 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $321,995 Active 665 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $321,995 Active 664 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $321,995 Active 663 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $321,995 Active 662 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $321,995 Active 660 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $321,995 Active 659 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $321,995 Active 658 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $321,995 Active 657 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $321,995 Active 654 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $321,995 Active 652 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $321,995 Active 651 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $321,995 Active 649 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $321,995 Active 647 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $321,995 Active 646 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $321,995 Active 645 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,800
• − Property taxes: −$5,034
• − Insurance: −$1,678
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,472
• − Management: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$9,764
• Taxable loss: −$9,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,238
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 14/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridgemont Early Literacy Center Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Fort Bend Co Alter

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $324,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $322,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $348,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $320,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $318,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $316,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $314,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $311,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $321,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $315,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $317,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $315,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $313,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $310,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $305,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $315,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-17 Price Changed $334,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-06-01 Listed $332,995 Zillow