9867 Jerome Dr · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,006 sqft · Land · 186 Days on market

Built 1992 0.62 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Moon Lake Estates! This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom waterfront mobile home offers 2,006 sq. ft. of living space on a spacious 0.62-acre lot overlooking Lake Jerome. Zoned Agricultural (AG) and not located in a flood zone, this property provides peace of mind and endless possibilities—bring your animals, toys, or investment ideas. The home features laminate flooring, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a split floor plan, and newer major components, including a new septic system and a new well system. With some TLC, this home can be transformed into your ideal country retreat or a profitable investment. Don’t miss out on this waterfront opportunity!

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• New septic system
• Zoned agricultural

Tags

• WATERFRONT MOBILE HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• ZONED AGRICULTURAL
• NOT LOCATED IN FLOOD ZONE
• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.62 acre (1/2 to less than 1 acre); 244 feet of lagoon frontage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block, crawlspace and pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; On waterfront (lagoon) with lagoon access and lagoon view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room fireplace (wood burning)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Elementary School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 642 students, 68% FRL); River Ridge High School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,802 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $225k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.56%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,058
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $17,291
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $734	-5% $671	+0% $607	+5% $543	+10% $480
Rent	-10% $414	-5% $511	+0% $607	+5% $704	+10% $800
Rate	-1.0pp $720	-0.5pp $664	base $607	+0.5pp $549	+1.0pp $489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2025-12-12
    listed $225,000 Active
14. 2024-03-19
    soldstatus $135,000
15. 2023-03-22
    historical
16. 2023-03-14
    listed $159,900 Active
17. 1998-12-31
    soldstatus $6,000
18. 1995-08-30
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $585 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,282/yr (+$107/mo · 219.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,345
• − Management: −$2,345
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $3,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$903
• After-tax cash flow: $6,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2150.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-14 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $585 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.