11512 Duncan Rd · Petersburg, VA 23805

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1968 1.25 ac lot $144/sqft · 48% below area Est $261k · 48% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 11512 Duncan Rd on 1.25 acres—an excellent opportunity for cash buyers, investors, or those using renovation financing. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious 1.25-acre lot. Recent improvements include a brand-new roof installed in September 2024, newer windows, upgraded electrical, fresh interior paint, and a deep well. The property offers a peaceful country setting with plenty of room for gardening, outdoor living, or future expansion, and is conveniently located just 10 minutes from Dewitt, 20 minutes from Fort Lee and Colonial Heights, and 40 minutes from downtown Richmond—providing the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The home is being sold strictly As Is, and the price adjustment reflects the need for an engineered septic system. Buyers are encouraged to view the home in person before making an offer. Seller discloses that the crawl space has had conditions requiring attention; some work has been completed, but additional repairs or improvements may still be needed. Seller makes no representation or warranty regarding the current condition of the crawl space and advises buyers to conduct their own full inspection and evaluation. Some photos in this listing have been digitally enhanced to illustrate furniture placement and décor. The metal ramp has been removed since the original photographs were taken.

Key facts

• Deep well
• Upgraded electrical
• Newer windows

Tags

• 1.25 ACRES
• NEW ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• DEEP WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.5% in Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.61%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,242
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -48.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-620
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $26,739
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23805

• Home prices YoY: -10.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $946/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-01-01
    listed $135,000 Active 1387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1387 chars)

    Welcome to 11512 Duncan Rd on 1.25 acres—an excellent opportunity for cash buyers, investors, or those using renovation financing. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious 1.25-acre lot. Recent improvements include a brand-new roof installed in September 2024, newer windows, upgraded electrical, fresh interior paint, and a deep well. The property offers a peaceful country setting with plenty of room for gardening, outdoor living, or future expansion, and is conveniently located just 10 minutes from Dewitt, 20 minutes from Fort Lee and Colonial Heights, and 40 minutes from downtown Richmond—providing the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. The home is being sold strictly As Is, and the price adjustment reflects the need for an engineered septic system. Buyers are encouraged to view the home in person before making an offer. Seller discloses that the crawl space has had conditions requiring attention; some work has been completed, but additional repairs or improvements may still be needed. Seller makes no representation or warranty regarding the current condition of the crawl space and advises buyers to conduct their own full inspection and evaluation. Some photos in this listing have been digitally enhanced to illustrate furniture placement and décor. The metal ramp has been removed since the original photographs were taken.

16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-06-03
    listed $135,000 Active
18. 2025-04-30
    historical
19. 2025-03-04
    status Active
20. 2024-11-27
    status Pending
21. 2024-11-20
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $946 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$946
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$459
• After-tax cash flow: $3,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinwiddie County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101170
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,857
• Composite: 46.62/100
• National rank: #2413
• State rank: #81 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Petersburg City · 21,408 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 21,408
• Household income: $60,807
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Dinwiddie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,876 people
• By 2030: 27,480 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 26,285 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 24,617 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 21,647 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 18,485 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Dinwiddie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.1% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+12.4 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.37%
• Current HPI: 426.599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listed $135,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $135,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-03-04 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2024-11-27 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2024-11-20 Listed $165,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $946 · +35.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.