143 Pansy St · Davenport, FL 33837

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 384 sqft · Manufactured public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1986 2,984 sqft lot $61/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

YOU OWN THE LAND AND NO CDD! This charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready to move into and situated on an outside lot with no rear neighbors. Lot is paved all around, so minimum upkeep. Property has an extra large carport added in 2010. This is a gated community with access by remote or electronic pad by pin number which changes monthly. The streets and sewer are privately owned by the community. The City of Davenport bills for your water and trash. The inviting clubhouse has many events and activities including bingo, cards, dance lessons, arts & crafts, major holiday meals, pot lucks, hot dog and hamburger Wednesday lunches at low price, often with entertainment. Outside bath entra

Key facts

• Gated community
• Extra large carport
• Hot tub

Tags

• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• EXTRA LARGE CARPORT
• GATED COMMUNITY
• INVITING CLUBHOUSE
• POOL AREA
• HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is landscaped, paved, private, within city limits on a privately maintained asphalt road (approx. 39 x 79); Community features include clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, street lights
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with required association approval; Monthly HOA approximately $61.25 (annual fee $735); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, laundry, gated entry, vehicle restrictions, fence restrictions, private road, recreational facilities; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs; weight limit ~25 lbs; number/size/breed limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Carport (2 spaces); Golf cart parking
• Security: Gated community (association restriction/approval required)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Hurricane shutters; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Some exhaust fan in unit
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Humidity control
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Window treatments (blinds and rods); Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $95k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.30%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $18,609
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $48,308
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $214/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $781

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $659	-5% $632	+0% $605	+5% $578	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $483	-5% $544	+0% $605	+5% $666	+10% $727
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $629	base $605	+0.5pp $580	+1.0pp $555

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashsecurity

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   price $95,000
3. 2026-01-14
   price $110,000
4. 2025-12-03
   price $125,500
5. 2025-11-17
   listed $132,000 Active
6. 2010-03-09
   soldstatus $48,000
7. 2008-01-28
   historical
8. 2007-06-16
   listed $63,900
9. 1999-02-22
   soldstatus $34,000
10. 1986-10-01
    soldstatus $12,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $214 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $788 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$574/yr (+$48/mo · 267.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$214
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $6,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,460
• After-tax cash flow: $5,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Davenport

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Davenport, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 104,279
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+678.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $125,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listed $132,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2008-01-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-16 Listed $63,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $214 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.