Kennedy Plan · Middlesex, PA 16059

$409,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,901 sqft · Townhouse · 48 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kennedy floorplan combines the space of a single-family home with the convenience of low-maintenance living. The first floor includes 9-foot ceilings, luxury vinyl plank floors and an open layout with a modern kitchen, quartz countertops, sleek cabinetry, and a pantry for extra storage. The kitchen flows into the dining area and family room, creating a versatile space for everyday living. Upstairs, a spacious landing leads to three bedrooms, all featuring a walk-in closet. The owner's suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms share a second full bath, each with double vanities. The laundry is also conveniently located on the second floor! With the Kennedy, an optional

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet
• Sleek cabinetry

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SLEEK CABINETRY
• PANTRY FOR EXTRA STORAGE
• SPACIOUS LANDING
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: List price $409,990
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Single-family plan (Kennedy)
• Construction: New construction (plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Address: 1000 Madisyn Ln, Valencia PA 16059

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area (1901 total living area); Plan model: Kennedy (new construction plan)
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. The $409,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $456,058.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-940 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mars Area SD (rural): math 58% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #24 of 539 in PA (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($398k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $280,000 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.83%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $456,058
• List price: $409,990
• Delta: -10.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1002 Madisyn Ln	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,901 (0%)	1mo	$427,990	$225	99
1191 Tilly Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-3%)	8mo	$439,900	$238	53
1253 Tilly Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-3%)	8mo	$472,000	$255	49
1271 Tilly Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,849 (-3%)	15mo	$450,000	$243	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-99,651
• Equity at exit: $104,233

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-132,127
• Equity at exit: $104,540

Cash invested: $127,696 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16059

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,392
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$570 /mo · $6,841/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-940

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,990

Max offer price $320,080

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,015
• Closing costs: $13,682
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1078 Adair Ave Valencia, PA	3.0	2.5	2253	$2,800	$1.24	2d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $409,990 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $409,990 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $409,990 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $409,990 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,990 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $409,990 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $409,990 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $409,990 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $409,990 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $409,990 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $409,990 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $409,990 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $409,990 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $409,990 Active 1048-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,546
• − Property taxes: −$6,841
• − Insurance: −$2,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$13,267
• Taxable loss: −$19,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,731
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mars Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4214790
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $84,859
• Composite: 60.96/100
• National rank: #806
• State rank: #24 of 539 in PA

Livability — Middlesex

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,770

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 190,777 people
• By 2030: 191,476 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 189,474 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 182,050 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 159,526 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 129,028 · -32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Serbian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.5% · R 65.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 276.1662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B