211 Arrowhead Rd · Willard, MO 65781

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2000 0.32 ac lot $201/sqft · at area comps Est $220k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Ranch in the Willard School District. This home is super clean, and very well-maintained. A privacy fence surrounds this home's picture-perfect backyard. Homes in this price range do not last long. Call for your showing today!

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Near local park
• New solar panels

Tags

• NEW SOLAR PANELS
• LARGE PRIVACY-FENCED YARD
• CENTRALLY LOCATED NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR LOCAL PARK
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (garage faces front)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Privacy fencing; Public maintained road access; City street frontage; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric oven / Free-standing electric oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-447/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Willard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#79 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willard East Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 326 students, 32% FRL); Willard Middle (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D+, #105 of 391 statewide, top 27%, 741 students, 32% FRL); Willard High (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,381 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,209 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,034
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -0.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Willowridge Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,092 (0%)	1mo	$149,900	$137	94
105 Sedona Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,103 (+1%)	8mo	$225,000	$204	89
121 Holly Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+4%)	1mo	$229,900	$203	87
103 Arrowhead Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,085 (-1%)	1mo	$215,000	$198	76
102 Arrowhead Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,085 (-1%)	2mo	$215,000	$198	76
217 Arrowhead Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	10mo	$229,500	$191	72
204 Arrowhead Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,227 (+12%)	10mo	$214,900	$175	68
108 W Fall Creek Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,211 (+11%)	5mo	$229,000	$189	65
113 Holly Ridge Rd	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+8%)	14mo	$215,000	$183	63
204 Eagle Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,236 (+13%)	3mo	$249,900	$202	60
119 N Grand Prairie Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,219 (+12%)	11mo	$219,900	$180	54
100 Dorcas Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	960 (-12%)	2mo	$185,000	$193	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-38,070
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-36,404
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65781

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,828/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $213,424

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $25	+0% $-37	+5% $-99	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-105	+0% $-37	+5% $31	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $19	base $-37	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $220,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $225,000 Active 546-char remark
18. 2017-10-17
    soldstatus
19. 2017-10-13
    soldstatus 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Fantastic 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Ranch in the Willard School District. This home is super clean, and very well-maintained. A privacy fence surrounds this home's picture-perfect backyard. Homes in this price range do not last long. Call for your showing today!

20. 2017-08-01
    listed $110,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Fantastic 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Ranch in the Willard School District. This home is super clean, and very well-maintained. A privacy fence surrounds this home's picture-perfect backyard. Homes in this price range do not last long. Call for your showing today!

21. 2017-05-25
    listed $110,000
22. 2004-02-26
    soldstatus
23. 2003-10-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$306/yr (+$26/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,828
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,030
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willard R-II
• NCES district ID: 2932010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,200
• Composite: 39.04/100
• National rank: #4063
• State rank: #83 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willard

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #5258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willard, MO
• Population (ZIP): 9,160

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.06%
• Current HPI: 214.9498
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $220,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-24 Listed $225,000 SOMO
• 2017-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-13 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2017-08-01 Listed $110,000 SOMO
• 2017-05-25 Listed $110,000 SOMO
• 2004-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,828 · +24.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.