2629 Ruby Ln · Middletown, OH 45044

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,157 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2007 6,360 sqft lot Est $197k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy and comforting this 3 bedroom , 2 bath home is move in ready! Easy one-level living with an open floor, and nicely equipped eat-in kitchen! Come check it out!

Key facts

• 6,360 sq ft lot
• Built 2007
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.146 acres
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Traditional single-family home; One level (single-story); Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl windows; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on main level; Primary bedroom approximately 11 x 14; Second bedroom approximately 10 x 12; Third bedroom approximately 11 x 13
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Entry with a small foyer
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (about 8 x 13)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.5% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.28%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,690
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 Diamond Loop	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+2%)	1mo	$265,000	$225	91
2633 Ruby Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-5%)	1mo	$208,000	$188	91
608 Diamond Loop	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,171 (+1%)	10mo	$247,000	$211	81
580 Diamond Loop	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-7%)	8mo	$235,000	$218	78
3103 Locust St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-0%)	4mo	$175,000	$152	71
609 Buena Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,075 (-7%)	1mo	$171,000	$159	69
712 Buena Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,042 (-10%)	2mo	$168,000	$161	64
2004 Minnesota St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-2%)	9mo	$187,550	$166	63
1102 Forrer St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+7%)	6mo	$177,000	$143	59
3004 Judy Dr	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (-2%)	8mo	$179,000	$157	58
3003 Judy Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-7%)	4mo	$184,000	$170	57
3110 Brent Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-13%)	10mo	$179,000	$178	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,921
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $104,088
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45044

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,360/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2101 S Main St Middletown, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$900	$1.19	1d	1	0.44mi
1109 Oxford State Rd Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	744	$995	$1.34	1d	1	0.57mi
1419 Oxford State Rd Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$2,495	$2.77	1d	1	0.88mi
2000 Pearl St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$3,500	$3.89	1d	4	1.17mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 163-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $205,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,360 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,779 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$419/yr (+$35/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,360
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $4,590
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $6,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 56,217
• Household income: $73,732
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.07%
• Current HPI: 219.0479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $205,000 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,360 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.