21638 Carbonari Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$270,340

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Rio Floor Plan - This new three-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas with access to a covered patio for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for enhanced comfort and privacy, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Single-floor living

Tags

• SINGLE-FLOOR LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: RealManage Onsite Elevated; Annual association fee; Community amenities: clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, park, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision setting; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor; One more bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $270,340 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-626 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,763 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.18%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,990
• List price: $270,340
• Delta: -13.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21639 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+2%)	1mo	$337,990	$193	94
22102 La Scorza Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+4%)	1mo	$324,990	$181	92
19307 Licola Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-6%)	0mo	$276,990	$170	90
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (+2%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	87
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-4%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	87
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-4%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	87
22106 La Scorza Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+9%)	0mo	$307,990	$164	84
22210 San Lioni Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+9%)	1mo	$330,990	$176	84
22214 San Lioni Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (+11%)	1mo	$333,990	$175	76
22002 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+12%)	1mo	$316,990	$165	74
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-8%)	0mo	$249,990	$158	67
21002 Echo Manor Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-12%)	0mo	$262,000	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-99,491
• Equity at exit: $48,904

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-162,959
• Equity at exit: $28,359

Cash invested: $91,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,920/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,040

Max offer price $237,401

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-399	-5% $-513	+0% $-626	+5% $-739	+10% $-853
Rent	-10% $-804	-5% $-715	+0% $-626	+5% $-537	+10% $-448
Rate	-1.0pp $-461	-0.5pp $-543	base $-626	+0.5pp $-711	+1.0pp $-797

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,998
• Closing costs: $9,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	24d	1	0.20mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,876	$0.98	0d	1	0.49mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	0.54mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	0d	1	0.68mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	4d	1	0.79mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	0d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	3d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $275,990 Active 567-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   historical
3. 2026-05-04
   price $275,990
4. 2026-04-30
   price $280,490
5. 2026-04-27
   price $284,990
6. 2026-04-20
   price $288,390
7. 2026-04-15
   listed $292,840 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,373
• − Property taxes: −$4,920
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$9,542
• Taxable loss: −$13,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,225
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has a good foundation and structure, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The kitchen and bathrooms need minor updates to enhance their resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can appeal to a broader range of buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can appeal to a broader range of buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $275,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $280,490 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $288,390 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $292,840 HARMLS